000
AXNT20 KNHC 120522
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sun Oct 12 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Post-Tropical Cyclone Jerry Gale Warning: The remnant low 
pressure of Jerry is analyzed 27N63W, with minimum pressure of 
1006 mb. The low is interacting with high pressure to its 
northeast. The resultant tight pressure gradient is producing 
gale-force winds within 150 nm in the NE and 210 nm in the SE 
quadrant along with seas of 12 to 18 ft. The low will gradually 
dissipate by late tonight, but gale-force south winds are 
expected north of 30N between 59W and 61W and with seas of 12 to 
17 ft in south to southwest swell. These conditions are forecast 
to diminish Sun afternoon. Scattered moderate to strong 
convection prevails from 24N to 30N between 58W and 65W. 

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on
the gale warning.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 32W from 00N
to 16N. A 1010 mb low is analyzed along the wave axis near 09N32W.
These features are moving W at 15-20 kt. Numerous moderate to 
strong convection is from 04N to 13N between 23W-40W. Fresh to
strong winds are noted in the wave/low environment, with rough
seas. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some 
development of this system, and a tropical depression could form 
next week while moving west-northwestward to northwestward across
the central tropical Atlantic. This system has a medium chance 
for tropical formation within the next 48 hrs.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 18N16W to 09N36W. The
ITCZ continues from that point to 08N59W. Aside from the
convection related to the tropical wave described above, 
scattered moderate convection is along the ITCZ between 40W-50W.

GULF OF AMERICA...

A cold front extends from 26N82W to 26N85W. Fresh north to 
northeast winds prevail N of the front across the E gulf mainly E
of 89W. Moderate to fresh northeast winds are elsewhere N of 25N 
while gentle to moderate northeast winds are south of 25N. Rough 
seas are north of 25N, while moderate seas prevail south of 25N.
Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin,
anchored by a 1013 mb high centered near 29N93W. 

For the forecast, winds will diminish overnight across the basin 
as low pressure NE of the area moves farther north, and pulls the 
cold front across the far southeast Gulf and Straits of Florida. 
Surface ridging will continue to build across the Gulf by 
midweek, allowing for gentle to moderate easterly winds.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is analyzed across the NW Caribbean from 22N82W
to 19N86W. satellite imagery shows scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection across the central Caribbean between 69W-78W. Similar 
activity is over the northeast part of the basin including the 
areas of the Virgin Islands and waters just south of Puerto Rico.
Latest scatterometer satellite date passes indicate light to 
gentle southeast winds across the basin along with moderate seas.
The exception is in the lee of Cuba, where the scatterometer data
indicates fresh south winds north of 20N between 77W and 81W. 

For the forecast, moderate to fresh SW winds, moderate seas and 
scattered thunderstorms will prevail south of central and eastern
Cuba tonight ahead of a trough over the northwest Caribbean. High
pressure over the central Atlantic will support moderate to fresh
trade winds across the eastern Caribbean through midweek, but a 
weak pressure pattern will maintain gentle breezes and slight seas
elsewhere. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the sections above for details on a post-tropical 
cyclone Jerry gale warning and on the tropical wave/low pres 
moving currently moving across the eastern part of the basin.

A cold front is analyzed across the W Atlantic from 31N77W to
27N80W. A pre-frontal trough extends from 28N78W to 23N82W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted ahead of the front/trough S of 27N 
between 71W-77W. Aside from the gale low and wave/low described 
above under Special Features, moderate to fresh winds NE and 
moderate seas prevail across the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the remnants of Jerry will continue
to support winds to gale force and rough to very rough seas north
of 27N between 57W and 63W through late Sun. Meanwhile, the W
Atlantic cold front will continue moving E across the basin while
weakening. Another cold front will move southward to the east of 
Bermuda Tue into Wed, bringing fresh to strong W to NW winds and 
rough seas to the waters north of 28N and east of 60W.

$$
ERA