After a grueling 162-game regular season, the time has come for the MLB playoffs. The action gets underway on Tuesday, Sept. 30, with the Wild Card round. Here’s how it breaks down:
- The winner of the Dodgers vs. Reds series will play Philadelphia.
- The winner of the Padres vs. Cubs series will play Milwaukee.
- The winner of the Tigers vs. Guardians series will play Seattle.
- The winner of the Yankees vs. Red Sox series will play Toronto.
The wild-card round is a best-of-three series with all three games being played at the home field of the higher-seeded team. The divisional round is a best-of-five series, while the League Championship Series and World Series are both best-of-seven.
The World Series will begin on Oct. 24.
The intensity might be ramped up, and teams might employ more dramatic and desperate strategies, but at the core, it’s the same game, and similar betting strategies should be employed.
What is baseball betting?
Baseball betting is any wager tied to the result of a baseball matchup or a specific event within the game. Common bet types include bets on team and player performances.
Understanding baseball betting basics
The most important aspect of baseball betting is to understand what baseball betting means.
Any wager placed on game results, margin of victory, runs scored, and player performance is a baseball bet. Typically, these bets are paid out based on odds set by the best Ohio sportsbooks.
Popular bet types
These are the most popular bet types that you should familiarize yourself with before betting on baseball:
- Moneyline: Bet on which team will win the game outright. Odds are based on the implied probability of a given team winning that matchup. You need to pick the winning team to win a moneyline bet. Parlay betting often goes with moneyline bets.
- Run line: Similar to a point spread bet in the NFL or NBA, except the run-line is usually 1.5 runs. If you bet the favorite to cover the run line, you’ll need it to win by at least two runs. The run line is static compared to spreads in other sports because of the variance and low-scoring nature of the sport.
- Totals: Bet on whether the teams in a game will combine to score over or under the number of runs listed.
- Prop bets: A prop bet is a wager on something that happens in the game but may not necessarily impact the overall outcome of the game. For example, betting on a player to hit a home run or betting on the starting pitcher to get over 5.5 strikeouts.
- Futures: A futures bet will be resolved in the future, such as the World Series winner, the AL Cy Young award winner or a division winner. Fading public betting trends can be a good strategy here.
For example, here are the odds at DraftKings Sportsbook for Game 1 of the Wild Card round, featuring the Cleveland Guardians and Detroit Tigers:
Team | Run-Line | Moneyline | Total |
---|---|---|---|
Detroit | -1.5 (+118) | -169 | Over 6.0 (-114) |
Cleveland | +1.5 (-143) | +138 | Under 6.0 (-107) |
In this game, the Guardians are a decent-sized underdog at +138. A bettor would need to risk $100 to return a profit of $138. They might instead choose to back the Guardians on the run-line, where they would need to risk $143 to return a profit of $100. By betting the run-line, you win your Guardians bet if they lose by a run. If you bet the moneyline and the Guardians lose by a run, you would lose your bet.
The total for the game is six runs. It’s expected to be a pitcher’s duel between Tarik Skubal and Gavin Williams. The over is a slight favorite at -114 odds.
The player most likely to hit a home run in the game is the Tigers’ Kerry Carpenter, who hit 26 home runs in 130 games during the regular season. The outfielder has +450 odds to hit one out of the park. Cleveland starting pitcher Gavin Williams is a -142 favorite to go over 5.5 strikeouts.
As the playoffs get underway, there are 12 teams still alive. Unfortunately, the two Ohio teams have the worst odds on the board when it comes to World Series odds. Cleveland is +3000 while Cincinnati is +3500. The favorite to win the World Series is Philadelphia with +425 odds.
Why baseball betting is popular
Baseball betting is extremely popular, especially in the summer and when the playoffs come around. Here’s a list of reasons baseball gets a lot of action and attention.
- Summer to itself: Once the NHL and NBA playoffs wrap up in mid-June, MLB faces limited competition until football returns in September.
- The daily grind: There are 162 games in a season, and a slate of games is available every day except All-Star weekend. Your favorite team plays at least five and sometimes seven times a week.
- Data-driven: No sport has as much data at its disposal as baseball. While other sports try to expand analytics and sharpen their data, baseball is a step ahead because its data is based on thousands of 1-vs-1 matchups.
- Variety: Whether it’s picking a team to win a game, a player to hit a home run, a live bet to exploit a weak bullpen, or a no-run first inning bet to take advantage of good starting pitching, there are hundreds of ways to bet every MLB game.
- Intensity: Every pitch matters, and big moments happen out of nowhere in the MLB playoffs.
How to wager on baseball
If you’re ready to start wagering on baseball, there are numerous boxes to check. You must understand the markets and odds. Then, find the right sportsbook and sign up for one of the best Ohio sportsbook promos. Finally, do research and find edges that lead to a good betting process, hopefully leading to positive results.
Interpreting baseball wagering odds
If you’re unfamiliar with odds, check out our guide on how to read betting odds. Baseball is no different than any other sport in terms of the numbers in the odds section.
- Moneyline odds: These are based on the presumed probability that each team will win. Favorites are represented by negative numbers (Cleveland Guardians -150), while underdogs are represented by positive numbers (Kansas City Royals +125). In this example, you must bet $150 to win $100 in profit on the Guardians. If you back the underdog Royals instead, a $100 wager would return a profit of $125.
- Run line odds: Baseball’s version of spread betting, except the spread is almost always 1.5 runs due to the low-scoring nature of baseball and the extreme game-to-game variance. The favorite usually lays 1.5 runs (-1.5) and is an underdog to cover the spread. The underdog usually gets 1.5 runs (+1.5) and is a favorite to cover the run line.
- Totals: Sometimes, you can’t get a good feeling on a winner for a game, but you might expect a pitcher’s duel. In the totals market, you can bet whether the two teams will combine to score more or less than the listed total. Odds are usually close to -110 on both sides, but can vary. If you think Gavin Williams and Cole Ragans will be on top of their game, you might bet under 7.5 runs at -120 odds.
Steps to place a baseball wager
Placing a baseball wager is no different than wagering on any other sport. Follow these simple steps:
- Sign up with a reputable sports betting app, like Caesars Sportsbook or Fanatics Sportsbook.
- Scroll through the app until you find the MLB section.
- Check out the odds for all of the different games available and then scroll through all of the available markets.
- Once you find the market you want to bet on, double-check the odds and wager amount before submitting your bet.
- Watch your bet unfold and hopefully collect your winnings after the game ends.
Selecting a sportsbook
When selecting your sportsbook, there are a few key factors that you should consider before signing up and placing bets.
- Use a trusted sportsbook: Pick a licensed and legal betting app with good reviews, such as FanDuel Sportsbook.
- Look for bonuses: Take advantage of a new-user promotion. BetMGM Sportsbook and bet365 Sportsbook have some of the best Ohio sportsbook promos for new users.
- Compare lines: Check out which Ohio sportsbooks have the best odds for the bet that you want to place.
Tips for wagering on baseball
Following the right tips can increase your chances of success at baseball betting, especially if you are a newcomer.
Study pitcher performance
Starting pitchers impact games more than any other factor. You can’t lose if you don’t give up runs. In addition, account for a team’s bullpen and how rested the top relievers are.
Use statistics like ERA, strikeouts, WHIP, and FIP to gauge the top pitchers. Even bad teams can be a good bet if they have an ace on the mound.
Target underdog value
Even the worst teams in baseball win 50 games a season. Baseball’s volatility makes underdogs an appropriate target. For example, if you bet on +160 underdogs, you can win two of five bets and profit. Your record doesn’t matter if you profit.
Consider the ballpark and weather
Baseball is a rare sport in that every stadium has different dimensions. Some stadiums, like Boston’s Fenway Park, are hitters’ parks. Other stadiums, such as Seattle’s T-Mobile Park, favor pitchers.
Weather factors also impact the game. Wind blowing out can lead to more home runs. Cold temperatures favor pitching. A potential rain delay can make for a shortened outing for a starting pitcher. Make sure to check the forecast before betting on a game.
Control your bankroll
Practice sound bankroll management so your betting funds are separate from your living expenses, such as bills and food. Wager only disposable income and treat it as an entertainment expense.
Also, set your limits and don’t bet too much on any game. Only bet 1-2% of your bankroll per bet. If you have a $1,000 betting budget, wager $10-$20 per game. This ensures that you can comfortably survive any long losing streak.
Common mistakes to avoid in baseball betting
Avoid these common mistakes and pitfalls to give yourself the best chance to succeed when betting on baseball.
Relying on favorites
More so than any other sport, favorites lose in baseball. Even the best teams in baseball lose 50-plus games each season. Betting on heavy favorites has high risk and low potential return.
Consider shorter favorites and underdogs when betting on baseball. Losing one -250 wager would require winning three bets to overcome the loss.
Ignoring weather conditions
Wind, rain and temperature can impact scoring in baseball. The impact of an ace pitcher could be mitigated if the wind is blowing out. The game might be lower scoring than anticipated if it is unseasonably chilly.
The starting pitcher might only pitch three innings before a rain delay ends his night. These are all factors that should be considered before placing a wager.
Chasing losses
Keep your betting unit sizes consistent. Do not bet more if you encounter a losing streak. This is the quickest way to deplete your bankroll. Stay consistent in your betting habits.
Start betting on baseball with confidence
Armed with all of the necessary information and guidance you’ve received from this guide, you are ready to start betting on baseball with confidence.
Summertime is the slowest part of the sports calendar, and betting on baseball is the best way to add to the action in what can usually be a slow time.
Baseball betting FAQs
What is baseball betting?
Baseball betting is wagering on the outcomes of baseball games or specific events within them, such as team wins or player performances.
What are the best bets for baseball beginners?
Beginners might want to keep it simple by betting on the moneyline. When betting on the moneyline, you pick a team to win the game. The margin of victory and total runs scored do not matter.
How do run lines work in baseball betting?
The run line is baseball’s version of point spread betting, except the spread is almost always 1.5 runs due to the low-scoring nature. Favorites laying 1.5 runs are often underdogs to cover the spread.
Where can I find baseball betting odds?
Baseball betting odds are available at all legal online Ohio sportsbooks, including DraftKings and FanDuel.
Is baseball betting profitable?
If you develop a good strategy and stay disciplined and consistent with your wagering, it is certainly possible to be a profitable baseball bettor.