Mesoscale Discussion 2142
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0256 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

   Areas affected...much of northern and western Utah into far
   east-central Nevada

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 111956Z - 112230Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms will increase in coverage along a cold front after
   20-21Z, and potentially over southern areas ahead of the front.
   Locally severe hail or wind gusts are possible.

   DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows strong heating ahead of
   the cold front from NV into UT, with substantial cumulus over the
   higher terrain, indicative of the moist air mass. Precipitable water
   values are approaching 1.00" over parts of the area, as temperatures
   aloft gradually cool with the upper trough.

   Thunderstorms are already forming along the front from far northwest
   UT into eastern ID, where instability is relatively weak. However,
   MUCAPE values will increase through the late afternoon and evening,
   with MLCAPE over 750 J/kg expected. Moderate deep-layer shear should
   support cellular storm mode, especially with any activity that may
   develop over east-central into southwest UT ahead of the front.
   Despite a linear forcing mechanism along the front, some of these
   cells could potentially remain somewhat cellular as well, with hail
   near severe levels possible. Increasing/aggregating outflows will
   lead to gusty winds as well.

   ..Jewell/Guyer.. 10/11/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SLC...VEF...LKN...

   LAT...LON   41431316 41901246 41771121 40331132 38821173 37421251
               37471455 38641463 40151396 41431316 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN