SPC AC 120041

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0741 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

   Valid 120100Z - 121200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
   EASTER GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHWEST...AND ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA
   OUTER BANKS REGION...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening across
   the eastern Great Basin and Southwest. A brief tornado and
   occasional strong to severe gusts could occur over the Outer Banks
   of North Carolina late tonight and early Sunday morning.

   ...01z Update...

   Strong progressive upper trough is advancing steadily across the
   northern Intermountain region and Great Basin early this evening.
   Strong midlevel height falls and high-level diffluent flow continue
   to favor scattered convection along the frontal zone as it shifts
   east this evening. 00z sounding from SLC exhibited relatively steep
   lapse rates through 5km with MLCAPE around 700 J/kg. Nocturnal
   cooling should weaken boundary-layer lapse rates over the next few
   hours which should lead to overall weakening of ongoing activity.
   Farther south across southeast AZ, fairly high PW values are noted
   along the U.S. side of the international border with 1.66 PW
   observed at TUS. Deep-layer flow is also modestly strong which will
   continue to support at least isolated severe within an air mass
   characterized by MLCAPE around 1100 J/kg. This activity should
   spread toward southwest NM where cooler temperatures and weaker
   buoyancy will lead to weaker updrafts.

   Boundary layer moisture is gradually increasing along the Outer
   Banks of NC early this evening where latest observational data
   suggests lower 70s are noted. As moisture/instability advance inland
   the prospect for deeper updrafts/lightning will increase, especially
   after midnight. Some risk for severe gusts and perhaps a brief
   tornado can be expected.

   ..Darrow.. 10/12/2025

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z