Prognostic Discussion for Long-Lead Seasonal Outlooks 
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD 
830 AM EDT Thu Sep 18 2025 
 
SUMMARY OF THE OUTLOOK FOR NON-TECHNICAL USERS 
 
Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are currently near-to-below average across the 
central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. The ENSO Alert System Status 
continues with a La Niña Watch, which is issued when conditions are favorable 
for the development of La Niña within the next 6 months. A transition from 
ENSO-neutral to La Niña is likely in the next couple of months, with a 71% 
chance of La Niña during October-November-December (OND) 2025. Thereafter, La 
Niña is favored but chances decrease to 54% in December-January-February (DJF) 
2025-26, with ENSO-neutral expected to return by late winter and spring. 
 
The October-November-December (OND) 2025 Temperature Outlook favors 
above-normal temperatures over most of the Contiguous U.S. (CONUS), with the 
exception of Equal Chances (EC) of above, near, and below-normal temperatures 
forecast from the Pacific Northwest eastward across the northern tier to the 
Upper Great Lakes region. Probabilities favoring above-normal temperatures 
range from 50-60% over the Four Corners region and West Texas, the Northeast, 
and southern Florida, and peak at 60-70% over New Mexico and parts of 
neighboring states. Above-normal temperatures are also favored over much of 
Alaska, excluding east-central and Southeast Alaska, where EC is indicated. 
 
The October-November-December (OND) 2025 Precipitation Outlook favors 
above-normal precipitation over much of the Florida Peninsula, the Pacific 
Northwest eastward to the Northern High Plains, and most of the western half of 
Alaska. Below-normal precipitation is favored over much of the southern CONUS. 
 
Elsewhere over the U.S., EC is forecast where probabilities for each category 
of seasonal mean temperatures and seasonal accumulated precipitation amounts 
are expected to be similar to climatological probabilities. 
 
BASIS AND SUMMARY OF THE CURRENT LONG-LEAD OUTLOOKS 
Note: For Graphical Displays of the Forecast Tools Discussed Below See: 
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/tools/briefing 
 
CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS 
 
ENSO-neutral continued in August 2025, with near-to-below average SSTs observed 
across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.  The latest weekly Niño 3.4 
SST index is -0.5° C. Negative subsurface temperature departures (averaged from 
180°-100°W) strengthened, with below-average temperatures prevailing from the 
surface to a depth of 200m in the central and eastern Pacific. Relatively warm 
surface and subsurface water temperatures are confined to the far western 
tropical Pacific. Low-level wind anomalies were easterly across most of the 
equatorial Pacific, while upper-level wind anomalies were westerly over the 
western and eastern equatorial Pacific. Deep tropical convection was enhanced 
over Indonesia and the Maritime Continent region, and suppressed near the Date 
Line. The current state of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected the 
continuation of ENSO-neutral. 
 
As for local impacts, local SSTs are above-average in the coastal waters 
surrounding most of Alaska, along the West Coast of the CONUS, and the Gulf and 
Southeast coasts. Cooler-than-normal waters are observed off the Upper 
Mid-Atlantic and Northeast coasts. Local interaction between soil moisture and 
temperature and precipitation declines significantly as the growing season 
draws to a close. The CPC Leaky Bucket model depicts below-average soil 
moisture over much of the western U.S., the Middle and Lower Mississippi 
Valley, Ohio Valley, Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Florida, with scattered 
regions of above-average soil moisture over the Upper Mississippi Valley, much 
of the Great Plains, and a portion of the Southeast. Local interactions with 
soil moisture and SSTs are considered for early leads where applicable and 
relevant. 
 
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF SST FORECASTS 
 
The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) favors a short-lived La Niña 
during fall and early winter 2025-26. The CPC Niño 3.4 SST Index favors a 
minimal to weak La Niña from the SON season through January-February-March 
(JFM) 2026. In contrast, predictions from the International Research Institute 
(IRI) favor ENSO-neutral to persist through fall and winter 2025-26. This 
current set of seasonal outlooks is going with a transitional lead-1 period 
(OND 2025), followed by a weak La Niña for leads 2-4 (NDJ 2025-26 through JFM 
2026), with ENSO-neutral re-emerging during leads 5-6 (FMA to MAM 2026). 
 
PROGNOSTIC TOOLS USED FOR U.S. TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS 
 
Dynamical model forecasts from the NMME, the Coupled Forecast System Model 
Version 2 (CFSv2), and the Copernicus (C3S) multi-model ensemble system were 
used extensively for the first six leads when they are available, as was the 
objective, historical skill weighted consolidation and Calibration, Bridging, 
and Merging (CBaM) guidance, that combines both dynamical and statistical 
forecast information. A consolidation of statistical tools including the 
ENSO-OCN tool, which represents the combined influence of ENSO (when active) 
and decadal timescale trends  in temperature and precipitation (utilizing the 
Optimum Climate Normal, OCN) and dynamical models  is used for the first six 
leads. Following this, the ENSO-OCN forecast tool is used more extensively. 
Decadal variability and trends  are determined from the OCN, representing the 
difference between the most recent 15-year period average seasonal temperature 
or precipitation and the average for the climatology period, from 1991-2020. La 
Niña temperature and precipitation historical composites were used for the NDJ 
2025-26, DJF 2025-26, and JFM 2026 seasons. 
 
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF OUTLOOKS - OND 2025 TO OND 2026 
 
TEMPERATURE 
 
For the OND 2025 Temperature Outlook, above-normal temperatures are favored 
over most of the Contiguous U.S. (CONUS), with the exception of EC from the 
Pacific Northwest eastward across the northern tier to the Upper Great Lakes 
region. Probabilities favoring above-normal temperatures range from 50-60% over 
the Four Corners region and West Texas, the Northeast, and southern Florida, 
and peak at 60-70% over New Mexico and parts of neighboring states. 
Above-normal temperatures are also favored over much of Alaska, excluding 
east-central and Southeast Alaska, where EC is indicated.  The widespread 
coverage of favored above-normal temperatures is consistent with most dynamical 
and statistical model guidance and with trends . Relatively warm SSTs are a 
partial contributor to the widespread anomalous warmth. In northwestern Alaska, 
probabilities of above-normal temperatures reach 50-60%, tied to the 
climatological delay in the onset of sea ice in that region. In sharp contrast 
to this, the NCAR_CESM1 and NCAR_CCSM4 models forecast below-normal 
temperatures for most of the state of Alaska. The SST-CA tool (Constructed 
Analog using SST anomalies) forecasts a relatively cold Southeast Alaska during 
OND 2025. 
 
For leads 2-6 (NDJ 2025-26 through MAM 2026), the temperature outlooks are 
consistent with the predicted onset, occurrence, and decay of La Niña. The 
CPC-IRI consensus forecast predicts the La Niña will transition to ENSO-neutral 
sometime during the JFM 2026 season, while the CPC ENSO 3.4 SST Consolidation 
forecast shows the re-emergence of ENSO-neutral by FMA 2026. From NDJ through 
MAM, an initially small area of favored below-normal temperatures over western 
Washington expands eastward with time to include parts of the Northern Rockies, 
Northern Plains, and Minnesota culminating in peak spatial coverage during FMA 
2026. By MAM, only a small remnant of favored below-normal temperatures is 
depicted along the border between the Northern Plains and the Canadian 
provinces of Saskatchewan and Manitoba. The large area of favored above-normal 
temperatures during the OND season is predicted to gradually shrink and recede 
southward and eastward during the late fall and early winter to a relative 
minimum during JFM/FMA 2026. By that time, favored above-normal temperatures 
are predicted to be limited to the far southern and far eastern portions of the 
CONUS. By MAM 2026 and beyond, the area of favored anomalous warmth is 
predicted to expand once again northward and somewhat westward to include 
nearly all of the CONUS by next fall (SON and OND 2026). The temperature 
outlooks at these leads (from MAM 2026 onwards) are largely based on historical 
long-term trends . During most of these seasons, the greatest chance of 
above-normal temperatures (50-60%) is indicated over the West, the Northeast, 
and the general vicinity of Florida. For Alaska, the combination of dynamical 
and statistical models, and trends , favored above-normal temperatures for much 
of western and northern Alaska throughout the fall and winter. The most likely 
area to register below-normal temperatures during the next 6 months is 
Southeast Alaska and adjacent portions of south-central Alaska, from DJF 
2025-26 through FMA 2026, based on La Niña composites and to some degree, 
numerical model guidance. From spring 2026 onwards, the Alaska temperature 
outlooks are dominated by long-term historical trends . 
 
PRECIPITATION 
 
For the OND 2025 Precipitation Outlook, above-normal precipitation is favored 
over much of the Florida Peninsula, the Pacific Northwest eastward to the 
Northern High Plains, and most of the western half of Alaska. The wet signal 
across Florida is partly due to the time of year, as tropical cyclones 
occasionally form in the Caribbean Sea or Gulf of America and track 
northeastward or eastward across the state. This is supported by the calibrated 
C3S, and some of the models that comprise the C3S ensemble system. The 
northwestern CONUS wet signal (especially over the interior) is consistent with 
many of the dynamical and statistical tools, and is related to the expected 
mean Pacific jet stream position associated with La Niña (especially during the 
second half of this season), and the climatological early stages of the rainy 
season along the West Coast. The wetter-than-normal conditions favored over 
most of the western half of Alaska are supported by much of the NMME and C3S 
model guidance and relatively warm SSTs surrounding most of the state. This 
pattern is also commonly observed during cold season La Niñas featuring high 
pressure over the northeastern Pacific and broad onshore flow across the 
western part of Alaska. Below-normal precipitation is favored over much of the 
southern CONUS, and this is borne out by a large majority of the guidance. This 
broad area of favored below-normal precipitation extends over the western Gulf 
Coast region and the interior Southeast, related to a seasonal tendency for 
westerly winds to become more dominant in this region, and the preference for 
any tropical cyclones to be shunted eastward and northeastward across Florida 
and the western Atlantic. Elsewhere over the CONUS and Alaska, no single 
tercile class is favored over another, so EC is indicated. 
 
As we move forward into the late fall and winter, La Niña precipitation 
composites and regressions were also consulted, in addition to the usual 
dynamical and statistical model guidance. For leads 2-4 (NDJ 2025-26 through 
JFM 2026), which coincides with the peak of a predicted weak La Niña), the area 
of favored above-normal precipitation across the Northwest generally shifts 
and/or expands eastward, while a new wet signal (i.e. an area of above-normal 
precipitation) is favored to develop over the Central and Southern Great Lakes 
region in NDJ, and expand south-southwestward to the Lower Mississippi Valley 
through FMA 2026. Drier-than-normal conditions are favored during this same 
period (NDJ through JFM) across a large portion of the southern tier of the 
CONUS, with slightly elevated probabilities depicted over the 
Southwest/California and portions of the Southeast. This is generally supported 
by many of the tools, such as the calibrated versions of the C3S and NMME, 
CBaM, and La Niña historical composites. The Alaska precipitation outlooks for 
this same period tilt the odds towards above-normal precipitation for much of 
the state, excluding Southeast Alaska and the central and western Aleutians. 
This is consistent with many of the tools, such as the calibrated NMME and C3S, 
CBaM, the consolidations, and to some degree, trends . 
 
For leads 5-6 (FMA and MAM 2026), the favored wet signals  in the Northwest and 
east-central CONUS are predicted to weaken and disappear with time, with only a 
single wet signal remaining in MAM over the vicinity of the Upper Mississippi 
Valley and surrounding areas. The relative dryness over the southern CONUS is 
forecast to split into two components; one over the Southwest and one over the 
Southeast in FMA, with only the Southwest dry signal lingering into MAM. 
Alaska’s wet signal is forecast by some model guidance to shrink back to 
northwestern Alaska by MAM 2026. From lead 7 (AMJ 2026) onward, the 
precipitation signals  are generally consistent with long-term trends  as 
depicted by the OCN tool. During leads 7-10, a tilt towards below-normal 
precipitation is favored for the northwestern part of the CONUS, and a tilt 
towards above-normal precipitation is favored for parts of the East. The wet 
signal in the East continues through lead 11 (ASO 2026), while the dry signal 
in the northwestern CONUS gradually fades and splits into two areas of slightly 
favored below-normal precipitation; one over the Southwest and the other over 
the Upper Mississippi Valley. By lead 13 (OND 2026), trends  also favor the 
reappearance of a dry signal over the western Gulf Coast region. 
 
FORECASTER: Anthony Artusa 
 
The Climatic normals are based on conditions between 1991 and 2020, following 
the World Meterological Organization convention of using the most recent 3 
complete decades as the climatic reference period.  The probability anomalies 
for temperature and precipitation based on these new normals better represent 
shorter term climatic anomalies than the forecasts based on older normals. 
 
For a description of of the standard forecast tools - their skill- and the 
forecast format please see our web page at 
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/tools.html 
(Use Lower Cas e Letters) 
Information on the formation of skill of the CAS forecasts may be found at: 
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Outlook/outlook.shtm 
l 
(use lowercase letters) 
Notes - These climate outlooks are intended for use prior to the start of their 
valid period.  Within any given valid period observations and short and medium 
range forecasts should be consulted. 
 
This set of outlooks will be superseded by the issuance of the new set next 
month on Oct 16 2025 
 
 
1991-2020 base period means were implemented effective with the May 20, 2021 
forecast release. 
$$