SPC AC 130518

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1218 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

   Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
   OF THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S....

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated, marginally severe hail and wind will be possible from the
   Four Corners and eastern Arizona to the Texas Trans-Pecos this
   afternoon into mid-evening. Locally damaging winds are possible
   later tonight along the south-central portion of coastal California.

   ...Southwestern U.S...

   Strong upper low is currently located along the WA Coast, shifting
   south in line with latest model guidance. This feature will continue
   to dig south as the primary midlevel speed max has yet to round the
   base of the trough. Left-exit region of the jet max will approach
   the central CA Coast after 14/06z which should encourage low-topped
   convection to move onshore after midnight. This activity could be
   locally strong with some gust potential as scattered convection
   advances inland in association with a pronounced cold front.
   Forecast soundings yield little more than 500 J/kg MLCAPE so any
   hail that forms with this activity should remain below severe
   levels.

   Downstream, deep south-southwesterly tropical feed across northwest
   Mexico into the southern Rockies will continue. Considerable amount
   of clouds and scattered precipitation should limit lapse rates and
   instability across this region. Even so, strong 0-6km shear does
   favor organized updrafts, especially during the afternoon/early
   evening when air mass will be most unstable. A low risk for
   hail/wind can be expected with the most robust convection, but
   widespread severe is not anticipated due to aforementioned poor
   lapse rates/modest buoyancy.

   ..Darrow/Weinman.. 10/13/2025

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z