Product Description

Note: From May 15 through November 30, probabilistic information in the tropics can be found on the Weeks 2-3 Global Tropics Hazards Outlook (GTH).

Results are statistically derived from the operational Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS), calibrated and validated for hazardous weather conditions. Probabilities are produced for three wind speed (34, 48, and 64 knots) and four significant wave height (4, 6, 9, and 14 meters) thresholds for a one-week cumulative interval, associated with week 2. The values provide the probability the event will occur sometime during the specified one-week cumulative forecast period at the locations specified on the map.

For more information:

NWS Product Description Document

AMS 2024: Probabilistic wave forecast for week two and beyond based on NCEP's Global Ensemble Forecast System

GitHub: Source code