Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
FAR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be
possible on Monday across parts of far west Texas and southern New
Mexico.

...Far West Texas/Southern New Mexico...
A mid-level low will move southward adjacent to the immediate West
Coast on Monday, as southwesterly flow remains established from the
southwestern U.S. into the north-central states. At the surface, a
moist airmass with dewpoints from the mid 50s to near 60 F will be
in place from southern Arizona eastward into southern New Mexico and
far West Texas. As surface temperatures warm, an axis of instability
is forecast to develop from far west Texas northward into southern
New Mexico. Thunderstorms that develop near this axis of instability
may obtain a marginal severe threat during the mid to late
afternoon. Steep low-level lapse rates could support isolated severe
wind gusts. Hail could also occur within the stronger cores.

..Broyles.. 10/12/2025

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NEW MEXICO...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be
possible on Tuesday from mid afternoon into early evening across
parts of New Mexico.

...New Mexico...
At mid-levels, a ridge will remain over the central U.S., as a low
moves eastward into the Intermountain West. Between these two
features, southwest flow will be in place from the Desert Southwest
northeastward into the central and northern High Plains. At the
surface, a moist airmass will be located from the southern Plains
westward into the southern Rockies, where dewpoints are forecast to
be mostly in the 50s F. As surface heating takes place on Tuesday,
an axis of instability will develop over central New Mexico by
afternoon. Convection is expected to initiate in the higher terrain
by early afternoon, with scattered thunderstorms moving
northeastward into the lower elevations during the mid to late
afternoon. According to forecast soundings, MLCAPE is forecast to
reach the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range along the instability axis, with
0-3 km lapse rates peaking near 7.5 C/km. This could support a
threat for marginally severe wind gusts. Hail could also occur in
the stronger thunderstorm cores.

..Broyles.. 10/12/2025

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0358 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6...
A mid-level ridge is forecast to move slowly eastward from the
central and northern Plains on Wednesday to the Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley by Friday. During this time, a trough is forecast to move
eastward across the western half of the nation. Ahead of the trough
on Wednesday, isolated to scattered thunderstorms appear most likely
to develop from the southern Rockies into the northern Plains. An
isolated severe threat will be possible along and near the axis of
instability Wednesday afternoon and evening. The instability axis is
forecast to shift eastward into the central and northern Plains on
Thursday, and into the Upper Midwest on Friday. An isolated severe
threat will be possible along and near the instability axis on both
Thursday and Friday afternoon/evening.

...Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8...
Low-level moisture advection is forecast to increase markedly on
Saturday as the trough moves into the Great Plains. By afternoon, an
axis of moderate instability could be in place from the southern
Plains into the Ozarks, with surface dewpoints in the 60s F.
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms may develop along and near this
axis of instability Saturday afternoon and evening. A severe threat
will be possible from Saturday into Saturday night as the trough
moves across the central U.S. A severe potential will also be
possible on Sunday, with the system forecast to move across the
Mississippi Valley.

Although there is model spread among the solutions, most have the
trough moving into the Great Plains on Saturday, with a moist and
unstable airmass located over the lower to mid Mississippi Valley.
This scenario seems plausible. However, the models do still have
significant variance on the timing and strength of the mid-level
system. For this reason, will not add a severe threat area at this
time.