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r Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today across parts of the southern/central Rockies into the High Plains. Occasional large hail and severe wind gusts may occur. ...20Z Update... The ongoing forecast remains on track. Overall, weak thermodynamics will likely limit the coverage of more intense storms. Marginally greater surface moisture is noted near the Palmer Divide. This could be a local corridor where a stronger, marginal supercell could evolve later this afternoon. See the previous discussion for additional information. ..Wendt.. 10/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1103 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025/ ...Southern/Central Rockies into the High Plains... An upper low over the Great Basin within a larger-scale western trough will pivot eastward today and tonight to the central/southern Rockies. As this occurs, a 60-80 kt midlevel jet streak will overspread the region while a lee surface low develops in the vicinity of northeast CO/southeast WY. Meanwhile, a warm front oriented west to east across NE will lift northward into SD during the evening/overnight while surface troughing extends southward from the lee low into central/eastern NM. Boundary layer moisture will remain modest despite increasing southerly low-level flow, with dewpoints generally in the 50s F. Nevertheless, steepening midlevel lapse rates will aid in weak destabilization, with MLCAPE values maxing out around 1000-1500 J/kg. Isolated convection will gradually develop/increase over the higher terrain of NM/CO by early afternoon. Additional, isolated cells are likely further east over the adjacent High Plains by mid/late afternoon closer to the surface low over eastern CO. Vertically veering wind profiles will support organized cells, with a supercell or two possible. Isolated large hail will be the main risk with these storms, but locally gusty winds also may occur. Convection will continue to spread northeast through the evening, eventually moving north of the warm front across parts of eastern WY and the NE Panhandle and into western SD. Aided by sufficient MUCAPE and a healthy southerly low-level jet, this elevated activity may continue to pose a risk for marginally severe hail into the evening/nighttime hours. Read more ]]> Wed, 15 Oct 2025 20:02:22 +0000 https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_2000.html/202510152206 https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk_1930.html SPC Oct 15, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0205 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
KANSAS...OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated hail and strong gusts will be possible
Friday into Friday night from the southern and central Plains into
the lower Missouri Valley.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A cyclonic flow regime will persist from central Canada into the
north-central CONUS, with a leading wave moving quickly out of the
northern Plains during the day on Friday. South of this initial
wave, a belt of moderate midlevel southwesterlies will extend from
the upper MS Valley into the central Plains and northwest Mexico, on
the west side of an upper ridge extending from the lower Great Lakes
across the OH/TN Valleys. Overnight and into Saturday, a strong
upper jet will dig into the northern Rockies, which with large-scale
height falls extending into the northern and central Plains.

At the surface, low pressure associated with the initial wave will
move northeastward across MB/ON, with a cold front from the upper MS
Valley into the central and southern Plains. This boundary may
become nearly stationary from KS into western OK, as southerly winds
ahead of it maintain mid to upper 50s F dewpoints. Heating should
result in MUCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg, though mid/upper lapse rates will
not be very steep. Still, favorable time of day and sufficient shear
could support a few cells capable of marginal hail during the
afternoon. 

Overnight into Saturday morning, 30-40 kt southwest 850 mb flow will
help transport a plume of mid 60s F dewpoints out of TX and into
eastern OK. While near the end of the Day 3 period, this late
arrival of moisture could potentially bolster any ongoing activity.

..Jewell.. 10/15/2025

Read more ]]> Wed, 15 Oct 2025 19:07:07 +0000 https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk_1930.html/202510152206 pFad - Phonifier reborn

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