Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0450 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Valid 171200Z - 231200Z

...Day 3/Friday...
A mid-level trough and corresponding surface low accelerates
northeastward from the Northern Plains into Ontario on Day 3/Friday.
Breezy post frontal winds across the Northern Plains and
Upper-Midwest accompanied by cooler temperatures and higher relative
humidity should reduce fire weather concerns across the region.
Ample low-level moisture ahead of a cold front should aid in keeping
relative humidity above critical thresholds within a swath of
elevated south/southwest winds from the southern Plains into the
Great Lakes, suppressing overall fire danger.

...Day 4/Saturday...
Increasing southwest mid-level flow in response to an incipient
sub-tropical jet is expected across the Southwest on Day 4/Saturday.
In addition, a developing surface low across the Southern Plains
will support increased west/southwest surface winds south of an
advancing cold front across eastern NM and western TX. This warrants
a 40% probability of critical fire weather across portions of
northwest TX, where fuels are more receptive to wildfire spread. 

...Days 5-8/Sunday-Wednesday...
An intensifying surface low and mid-level trough will translate
east/northeast through the Great Lakes and Northeast early next
week. A trailing cold front and attendant showers and thunderstorms
should bring widespread rainfall to much of the eastern U.S. early
next week, with the exception of the Carolinas/GA downstream of the
Appalachians. Forecast guidance still indicates another robust
mid-level trough moving into the Intermountain West early next week,
which could bring dry and breezy conditions back into the southern
High Plains on Day 6/Monday, and potentially very dry post frontal
flow into central TX by Day 7/Tuesday. However, increasing model
uncertainty precludes introduction of critical probabilities at this
time.

..Williams.. 10/15/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...