URL: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/spcmdrss.xml
esoscale Discussion 2148 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0556 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 Areas affected...Northeast CO...southeast WY...western NE Panhandle...and far southwest SD Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 152256Z - 160100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...The area is being monitored for an increase in severe-storm potential into tonight. The primary concern will be large hail, though locally severe gusts will also be possible with southward extent. The need for a watch is uncertain. DISCUSSION...The latest surface observations and visible satellite imagery indicate an east/west-oriented quasi-stationary surface boundary draped across the southwestern NE Panhandle into southeastern WY, with widespread/persistent boundary-layer stratus socked in to the north of the boundary. To the south, a mesoscale surface cyclone is evident in the Denver vicinity, with a northeastward-extending convergence zone across northeastern CO. Convection has been attempting to form along the convergence zone, though weak large-scale forcing for ascent has limited convective initiation thus far. If a couple storms can evolve along the convergence zone, upper 70s to lower 80s temperatures and middle/upper 50s dewpoints will support surface-based inflow (around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE). This buoyancy and around 50 kt of effective shear will conditionally support a surface-based supercell or two, with a risk of large hail, locally severe wind gusts, and a low risk of a brief tornado (given around 200 m2/s2 effective SRH). However, overall confidence in the development of sustained surface-based storms in this corridor remains low, especially given gradually increasing nocturnal inhibition. Farther north/northwest, convection is gradually increasing along the higher terrain from north-central CO into central WY -- as midlevel heights continue falling ahead of a substantial midlevel trough moving across the Great Basin. While these storms will be moving atop a cool/stable boundary layer, around 60 kt of effective shear and steepening midlevel lapse rates will support elevated supercell structures with a risk of large hail into tonight. It is unclear if the severe risk will warrant a watch issuance, though convective and environmental trends are being monitored. ..Weinman/Guyer.. 10/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...UNR...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 39670395 39870441 40580467 41090529 41580553 42030553 42630537 43060504 43320450 43350388 43190325 42740298 41720266 40920266 40450292 39680348 39670395 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more ]]>Note: This service is not intended for secure transactions such as banking, social media, email, or purchasing. Use at your own risk. We assume no liability whatsoever for broken pages.
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