SPC Convective Outlook Day 1

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244
ACUS01 KWNS 130519
SWODY1
SPC AC 130518

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1218 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S....

...SUMMARY...
Isolated, marginally severe hail and wind will be possible from the
Four Corners and eastern Arizona to the Texas Trans-Pecos this
afternoon into mid-evening. Locally damaging winds are possible
later tonight along the south-central portion of coastal California.

...Southwestern U.S...

Strong upper low is currently located along the WA Coast, shifting
south in line with latest model guidance. This feature will continue
to dig south as the primary midlevel speed max has yet to round the
base of the trough. Left-exit region of the jet max will approach
the central CA Coast after 14/06z which should encourage low-topped
convection to move onshore after midnight. This activity could be
locally strong with some gust potential as scattered convection
advances inland in association with a pronounced cold front.
Forecast soundings yield little more than 500 J/kg MLCAPE so any
hail that forms with this activity should remain below severe
levels.

Downstream, deep south-southwesterly tropical feed across northwest
Mexico into the southern Rockies will continue. Considerable amount
of clouds and scattered precipitation should limit lapse rates and
instability across this region. Even so, strong 0-6km shear does
favor organized updrafts, especially during the afternoon/early
evening when air mass will be most unstable. A low risk for
hail/wind can be expected with the most robust convection, but
widespread severe is not anticipated due to aforementioned poor
lapse rates/modest buoyancy.

..Darrow/Weinman.. 10/13/2025

$$

The "Convective Outlooks" issued by SPC can be thought of as a detailed discussion of the Severe Thunderstorm threat and it's associated risks nationwide. Risk levels range from Marginal to Slight, Enhanced, Moderate, and High and are issued based on the likelihood of 3 major severe weather threats; the risk of tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail. These discussions are often heavily laced meteorological terminology that may be difficult to understand without a background in the field. However understanding these discussions shouldn't be thought of as necessary. Instead, should DuPage county fall under one of these threat levels for severe weather, the response should be to have a heightened level of awareness about the deveoloping weather. Keep an eye on the "Watch County Notification" for any active severe weather watches issued for DuPage county; the "Hazardous Weather Outlook" and "Severe Weather Statement" can also be helpful in explaining the developing risk; additionally, watch for "Active Weather Warnings" and keep an eye on our "Regional Satellite and Radar" products which can be viewed with active watches/warnings or lightning activity.

Hazardous Weather Outlook

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163
FLUS43 KLOT 122005
HWOLOT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL
305 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

ILZ003>006-008-010>013-019>021-023-032-033-039-103>108-INZ001-002-
010-011-019-132015-
Winnebago-Boone-McHenry-Lake IL-Ogle-Lee-De Kalb-Kane-DuPage-
La Salle-Kendall-Grundy-Kankakee-Livingston-Iroquois-Ford-
Northern Cook-Central Cook-Southern Cook-Northern Will-
Southern Will-Eastern Will-Lake IN-Porter-Newton-Jasper-Benton-
305 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025 /405 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Illinois...northeast Illinois and northwest Indiana.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be necessary through tonight.

$$

LMZ740>745-132015-
Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL-
Wilmette Harbor to Northerly Island IL-
Northerly Island to Calumet Harbor IL-
Calumet Harbor IL to Gary IN-Gary to Burns Harbor IN-
Burns Harbor to Michigan City IN-
305 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Illinois
nearshore waters of Lake Michigan and the Indiana nearshore
waters of Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Tuesday and Wednesday...
Hazardous conditions for small craft are likely.

$$

Petr

Visit us at www.weather.gov/chicago

The "Hazardous Weather Outlook" contains information regarding any and all weather expected to occur within the region that could be hazardous to travel, life or property. This is one of our most highly recommended products to check on a daily basis, and it some cases multiple times per day should significant weather be expected to affect DuPage county.

SPC Convective Outlook Day 2

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266
ACUS02 KWNS 130556
SWODY2
SPC AC 130555

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
FAR WEST TEXAS...NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be
possible on Tuesday across parts of far west Texas and New Mexico
from mid afternoon into the early evening. An isolated tornado and
wind-damage threat will be possible around midday Tuesday along the
coast in southern California.

...Far West Texas/New Mexico...
At mid-levels, a ridge will remain over the central U.S. on Tuesday,
as a low moves eastward across central California. Southwesterly
flow will be in place from the Desert Southwest into the southern
and central Rockies. Along the southeastern periphery of the
stronger flow, an axis of instability will be in place by Tuesday
afternoon from far west Texas northward into central and
northeastern New Mexico. As surface temperatures warm during the day
near the instability axis, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will
form in the higher terrain and spread northeastward into the lower
elevations. Near the instability axis, MLCAPE is forecast to peak in
the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range. The instability combined with moderate
deep-layer shear and steep low-level lapse rates should be enough
for a marginal severe threat from mid afternoon into early evening.
Isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be the primary threats.

...Southern California Coast...
A mid-level low will move across central California on Tuesday, as
an associated trough moves inland across southern California.
Thunderstorm development will likely take place near the trough,
along a focused band of large-scale ascent. The storms will form
near the axis of 80 to 90 knot mid-level jet, which will contribute
to strong deep-layer shear. Forecast soundings along the coast from
Los Angeles to San Diego around midday on Tuesday have 0-6 km shear
near 80 knots, with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the 150 to 250
m2/s2 range. This could be enough for a marginal tornado and
wind-damage threat, mainly with low-topped rotating storms that move
inland.

..Broyles.. 10/13/2025

$$

The "Convective Outlooks" issued by SPC can be thought of as a detailed discussion of the Severe Thunderstorm threat and it's associated risks nationwide. Risk levels range from Marginal to Slight, Enhanced, Moderate, and High and are issued based on the likelihood of 3 major severe weather threats; the risk of tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail. These discussions are often heavily laced meteorological terminology that may be difficult to understand without a background in the field. However understanding these discussions shouldn't be thought of as necessary. Instead, should DuPage county fall under one of these threat levels for severe weather, the response should be to have a heightened level of awareness about the deveoloping weather. Keep an eye on the "Watch County Notification" for any active severe weather watches issued for DuPage county; the "Hazardous Weather Outlook" and "Severe Weather Statement" can also be helpful in explaining the developing risk; additionally, watch for "Active Weather Warnings" and keep an eye on our "Regional Satellite and Radar" products which can be viewed with active watches/warnings or lightning activity.

SPC Convective Outlook Day 3

See Product Description

915
ACUS03 KWNS 130729
SWODY3
SPC AC 130729

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
An isolated severe threat is expected to develop from Wednesday into
Wednesday night across parts of the southern Rockies, and in the
central High Plains. Marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be
the primary threats.

...Southern Rockies...
A mid-level ridge will be located over the central U.S. on
Wednesday, as cyclonic mid-level flow remains in place from the
Desert Southwest into the central Rockies. Along the southeastern
periphery of the stronger flow, a north-to-south axis of instability
is forecast from southwest New Mexico into southern Colorado.
Warming surface temperatures during the day will aid convective
initiation in the higher terrain during the afternoon. Storms will
move northeastward into the lower elevations. Steep low-level lapse
rates and moderate deep-layer shear should be enough for an isolated
severe threat. Marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be
possible with the stronger cores.

...Central High Plains...
A mid-level low will move northeastward through the Intermountain
West on Wednesday, as an associated 70 to 80 knot jet streak moves
through the Four Corners region. The exit region of the jet will
overspread the central High Plains Wednesday night, providing a
broad zone of large-scale ascent that will aid scattered
thunderstorm development. At the surface, a lee trough will develop
and steadily deepen in the central High Plains on Wednesday. A warm
front will move northward into western and central Nebraska as an
east-southeast-to-west-northwest axis of low-level moisture becomes
increasingly defined behind the front. Instability is forecast to
become maximized during the evening at the western end of the moist
axis over western Nebraska and far southeastern Wyoming. This pocket
of instability is forecast to move northward into western South
Dakota by late evening. In addition to the instability, deep-layer
shear will steadily increase across the central High Plains as the
jet streak approaches, making conditions supportive of an isolated
severe threat. Cells that develop within the area of strongest
instability may have potential for marginally severe wind gusts and
hail.

..Broyles.. 10/13/2025

$$

The "Convective Outlooks" issued by SPC can be thought of as a detailed discussion of the Severe Thunderstorm threat and it's associated risks nationwide. Risk levels range from Marginal to Slight, Enhanced, Moderate, and High and are issued based on the likelihood of 3 major severe weather threats; the risk of tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail. These discussions are often heavily laced meteorological terminology that may be difficult to understand without a background in the field. However understanding these discussions shouldn't be thought of as necessary. Instead, should DuPage county fall under one of these threat levels for severe weather, the response should be to have a heightened level of awareness about the deveoloping weather. Keep an eye on the "Watch County Notification" for any active severe weather watches issued for DuPage county; the "Hazardous Weather Outlook" and "Severe Weather Statement" can also be helpful in explaining the developing risk; additionally, watch for "Active Weather Warnings" and keep an eye on our "Regional Satellite and Radar" products which can be viewed with active watches/warnings or lightning activity.

Special Weather Statement

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No active Special Weather Statement for DuPage County.

The "Special Weather Statement" details notable weather either occuring or expected to occur, but does not necessarily have to be considered severe or hazardous. This is a supplementary product issued by the National Weather Service to help describe noteworthy weather. It's terminology should be reasonably easy to understand by the general public.

Watch County Notification

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No active Watch County Notification for DuPage County.

The "Watch County Notification" will contain updates regarding active severe weather watches that pertain to DuPage county. This may be for a newly issued watch, or the cancelation of an existing watch. Severe weather watches come in two forms; Severe Thunderstorm and Tornado, and it should be noted that a Severe Thunderstorm Watch does NOT rule out the possibility of tornadoes occuring. It generally means that the tornado threat is minimal while damaging winds and hail are still likely. See our "Watch, Warning, and Advisory Criteria" for more detailed information on the differences and critera for watches, warnings and advisory for all forms of weather.

Winter Weather Statement

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No active Winter Weather Statement for DuPage County.

The "Winter Weather Statement" is a product aimed at the general public that will discuss impacts caused by winter weather. This may include information about watches, warnings and advisories as well as details about impactful winter weather that may not warrant the issuance of a watch, warning or advisory.

Severe Weather Statement

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No active Severe Weather Statement for DuPage County.

The "Severe Weather Statement" is a product aimed at the general public that will discuss impacts caused by severe thunderstorms. This may include information about watches and warnings as well as details about impactful "sub-severe" weather that may not warrant the issuance of a watch or warning which sometimes may come when a watch or warning has been canceled.

Non-Precip Statement

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No active Non-Precip Statement for DuPage County.

The "Non-Precip Statement" is aimed at the general public and will detail notable weather that is either occuring or expected to occur, but does not relate to any form of precipitation. These would include but are not limited to high winds, reduced visibility or extreme temperatures.

Active Weather Warnings

Tornado Warnings

No active Tornado Warnings.

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings

No active Severe Thunderstorm Warnings.

Flood Warnings

No active Flood Warnings.

General Tornado/Severe Weather Safety

1. A Tornado or Severe Thunderstorm Warning is issued when it has been reported, or when it has been detected via National Weather Service radar. It is to be interpreted that this event is occuring and is expected to affect all warned areas. Those within the warning need to take action immediately.
2. If under a warning remain calm and if it is necessary to seek shelter. Students and Employees should head to their nearest designated shelter area. The route to these shelter areas are posted in all rooms on campus and signs are placed in the hallways to direct you to the nearest shelter area. Review these instructions and be familiar with where your nearest shelter is. Stay indoors, away from windows and large unsupported ceilings. Faculty should account for their students and Supervisors should account for their areas employees.
3. If outside, take shelter in the nearest building.
4. After the storm has passed, dial Police at 911 to report any injuries or damage to buildings.
5. If the building is severely damaged, evacuate the building as soon as possible after the storm has passed.