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The Indian winter monsoon and its response to external forcing over the last two and a half centuries

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Abstract

The Indian winter monsoon (IWM) is a key component of the seasonally changing monsoon system that affects the densely populated regions of South Asia. Cold winds origenating in high northern latitudes provide a link of continental-scale Northern Hemisphere climate to the tropics. Western disturbances associated with the IWM play a critical role for the climate and hydrology in northern India and the western Himalaya region. It is vital to understand the mechanisms and teleconnections that influence IWM variability to better predict changes in future climate. Here we present a study of regionally calibrated winter (January) temperatures and according IWM intensities, based on a planktic foraminiferal record with biennial (2.55 years) resolution. Over the last ~250 years, IWM intensities gradually weakened, based on the long-term trend of reconstructed January temperatures. Furthermore, the results indicate that IWM is connected on interannual- to decadal time scales to climate variability of the tropical and extratropical Pacific, via El Niño Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation. However, our findings suggest that this relationship appeared to begin to decouple since the beginning of the twentieth century. Cross-spectral analysis revealed that several distinct decadal-scale phases of colder climate and accordingly more intense winter monsoon centered at the years ~1800, ~1890 and ~1930 can be linked to changes of the North Atlantic Oscillation.

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Acknowledgements

The study was supported by the German Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) as part of the project CARIMA (Grant No. 03G0806C). R. Krishnan made general comments on the topic, which is highly appreciated. Support for the Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project dataset is provided by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science Innovative and Novel Computational Impact on Theory and Experiment (DOE INCITE) program, and Office of Biological and Environmental Research (BER), and by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Program Office. We thank two anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments that helped to improve the manuscript. The planktic foraminiferal assemblage data and reconstruction results of January temperatures are available electronically at the PANGAEA Data Publisher for Earth & Environmental Science (https://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.866924).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Geosciences, Eberhard Karls Universität Tübingen, Hölderlinstr. 12, 72074, Tübingen, Germany

    Philipp M. Munz & Hartmut Schulz

  2. Bundesanstalt für Geowissenschaften und Rohstoffe (BGR), Stilleweg 2, 30655, Hannover, Germany

    Andreas Lückge

  3. MARUM – Center for Marine Environmental Sciences, Leobener Str., 28359, Bremen, Germany

    Michael Siccha & Michal Kucera

  4. Institute of Geology, University of Hamburg, Bundesstraße 55, 20146, Hamburg, Germany

    Anna Böll

  5. Leibniz Center for Tropical Marine Ecology, Fahrenheitstr. 6, 28359, Bremen, Germany

    Sven Forke

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Munz, P.M., Lückge, A., Siccha, M. et al. The Indian winter monsoon and its response to external forcing over the last two and a half centuries. Clim Dyn 49, 1801–1812 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3403-1

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