SPC AC 141947

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0247 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

   Valid 142000Z - 151200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NEW
   MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be
   possible across parts New Mexico and far west Texas this afternoon
   and evening.

   ...20z Update...
   The primary adjustment for this update was the removal of risk
   probabilities across coastal southern CA. Latest surface
   observations continue to sample winds associated with a shallow
   convective frontal band of a similar magnitude to regional gradient
   winds (generally gusting between 35-45 mph). Warming cloud-top
   temperatures and a diminishing inland warm sector (where observed
   temperatures are running a few degrees cooler than depicted by
   recent guidance) suggest any lingering severe potential will likely
   diminish further through the afternoon. That said, a waterspout or
   two remains possible in the near-term (next 1-2 hours) as the band
   approaches the coast due to strong wind shear through the lowest few
   kilometers. Elsewhere, the previous forecast remains on track; see
   the previous discussion below for additional details.

   ..Moore.. 10/14/2025

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1100 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025/

   ...Coastal Southern California...

   Shallow/low-topped convective showers will continue to spread east
   across the region through early afternoon. Instability will remain
   scant, with generally less than 200 J/kg MUCAPE noted in SPC
   mesoanalysis and forecast soundings. Most of the stronger gusts
   reported in the past couple of hours have coincided with higher
   elevation observation sites, and are likely driven by a belt of
   40-50 kt southwest flow from 850-700 mb. Locally strong gusts may
   persist another couple of hours before weakening by midday/early
   afternoon local time.

   ...New Mexico and Far West Texas...

   A belt of enhanced mid/upper southwesterly flow will continue to
   stream across the southern Rockies today, sandwiched between an
   upper ridge to the east and an upper trough over the West. Modest
   boundary layer moisture will continue to spread northward across the
   region, with surface dewpoints mainly in the 50s to low 60s F and PW
   values over 1 inch. This will be sufficient for 1000-1500 J/kg
   MLCAPE values, despite marginal midlevel lapse rates (6.5 to 7
   C/km). Vertically veering wind profiles with effective shear
   magnitudes greater then 35-40 kt suggest convection could become
   strong at times, with perhaps transient supercell characteristics.
   Locally strong gusts and a few instances of hail approaching 1 inch
   diameter will be possible with the strongest cells. A greater severe
   risk should remain tempered by the modest thermodynamic environment.

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