Abstract
While it is known that sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the subtropical northeastern Pacific (SNEP) can be forced by wintertime atmospheric variability, the region over which atmospheric variability plays the significant driving role remains to be elucidated. Based on observational data during 1900–2014 and a first-order autoregressive model, we show that SNEP SST variability is dominantly forced by wintertime atmospheric variability over the North Pacific, slightly north of the SNEP. Atmospheric variability south of the SNEP, however, does not play the dominant driving role because of atmospheric barotropic response that partially offsets baroclinic Gill response over the ocean surface. Further, by decomposing North Pacific atmospheric variability into tropical Pacific (TP)-forced and non-TP-forced components using a tropical Pacific pacemaker experiment, we find that the leading modes in the two components comparably contribute to forcing SNEP SST in the historical record. Further analyses show that their contribution is unstable on decadal timescales, with stronger forcing effect from TP-forced Aleutian Low (AL) variability before the 1930s and after the 1980s. Such non-stationary forcing effect is primarily attributed to the relative amplitude between TP-forced AL and non-TP-forced atmospheric variability, which would affect the predictability of SNEP SST variability.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
Data availability
The ERSSTv5 data are available at https://www.earthsystemgrid.org/dataset/ucar.cgd.cesm2.pacific.pacemaker.html. The 20CRv3 data are available at https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.20thC_ReanV3.monolevel.html#caveat. The CESM2 POGA outputs are available at https://www.earthsystemgrid.org/dataset/ucar.cgd.cesm2.pacific.pacemaker.html.
References
Adames ÁF, Wallace JM (2017) On the tropical atmospheric signature of El Niño. J Atmos Sci 74:1923–1939. https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-16-0309.1
Alexander MA, Deser C (1995) A mechanism for the recurrence of wintertime midlatitude SST anomalies. J Phys Oceanogr 25:122–137
Alexander MA, Bladé I, Newman M, Lanzant JR, Lau NC, Scott JD (2002) The atmospheric bridge: the influence of ENSO teleconnections on air–sea interaction over the global oceans. J Clim 15:2205–2231
Amaya DJ (2019) The Pacific meridional mode and ENSO: a review. Curr Clim Change Rep 5:296–307. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-019-00142-x
Amaya DJ, Kosaka Y, Zhou W, Zhang Y, Xie S-P, Miller AJ (2019) The North Pacific pacemaker effect on historical ENSO and its mechanisms. J Clim 32:7643–7661. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0040.1
Chang P, Zhang L, Saravanan R et al (2007) Pacifc meridional mode and El Niño-Southern oscillation. Geophys Res Lett 34:L16608. https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL030302
Chiang JC, Vimont DJ (2004) Analogous Pacific and Atlantic meridional modes of tropical atmosphere–ocean variability. J Clim 17:4143–4158. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI4953.1
Danabasoglu G, Lamarque J-F, Bacmeister J et al (2020) The community earth system model version 2 (CESM2). J Adv Model Earth Syst 12:e2019. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001916
Deser C, Phillips AS, Bourdette V, Teng H (2012) Uncertainty in climate change projections: the role of internal variability. Clim Dyn 38:527–546. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0977-x
Deser C, Guo R, Lehner F (2017) The relative contributions of tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures and atmospheric internal variability to the recent global warming hiatus. Geophys Res Lett 44:7945–7954. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017gl074273
Di Lorenzo E, Cobb KM, Furtado JC et al (2010) Central Pacific El Niño and decadal climate change in the North Pacific ocean. Nat Geosci 3:762–765. https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo984
Ding R, Li J, Tseng YH et al (2019) Linking the North American dipole to the Pacific meridional mode. J Geophys Res Atmos 124:3020–3034. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JD029692
Fan H, Yang S, Wang C, Lin S (2023a) Revisiting the impacts of tropical Pacific SST anomalies on the Pacific meridional mode during the decay of strong eastern Pacific El Niño events. J Clim 36:4987–5002. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0342.1
Fan H, Wang C, Yang S (2023b) Asymmetry between positive and negative phases of the Pacific meridional mode: a contributor to ENSO transition complexity. Geophys Res Lett 50:e2023. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL104000
Fisher RA (1915) Frequency distribution of the values of the correlation coefficient in samples from an indefinitely large population. Biometrika 10:507–521. https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/10.4.507
Furtado JC, Di Lorenzo E, Anderson BT, Schneider N (2012) Linkages between the North Pacific Oscillation and central tropical Pacific SSTs at low frequencies. Clim Dyn 39:2833–2846. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1245-4
Gao S, Zhu L, Zhang W, Chen Z (2018) Strong modulation of the Pacific meridional mode on the occurrence of intense tropical cyclones over the western North Pacific. J Clim 31:7739–7749. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0833.1
Gill AE (1980) Some simple solutions for heat-induced tropical circulation. Q J R Meteorol Soc 106:447–462. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49710644905
Hu K, Huang G (2010) The formation of precipitation anomaly patterns during the developing and decaying phases of ENSO. Atmos Ocean Sci Lett 3:25–30. https://doi.org/10.1080/16742834.2010.11446839
Hu R, Lian T, Feng J, Chen D (2023) Pacific meridional mode does not induce strong positive SST anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific. J Clim 36:4113–4131. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0503.1
Hu S, Zhang W, Watanabe M, Jiang F, Jin FF, Chen HC (2024) Equatorial western–central Pacific SST responsible for the North Pacific Oscillation–ENSO sequence. J Clim 37:3191–3204. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0434.1
Huang B, Thorne PW, Banzon VF et al (2017) Extended reconstructed sea surface temperature, version 5 (ERSSTv5): upgrades, validations, and intercomparisons. J Clim 30:8179–8205. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0836.1
Ji X, Neelin JD, Mechoso CR (2015) El Niño-Southern Oscillation sea level pressure anomalies in the western Pacific: why are they there? J Clim 28:8860–8872. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00716.1
Jin F, Hoskins BJ (1995) The direct response to tropical heating in a baroclinic atmosphere. J Atmos Sci 52:307–319. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1995)052%3c0307:TDRTTH%3e2.0.CO;2
Kosaka Y, Nakamura H (2006) Structure and dynamics of the summertime Pacific-Japan teleconnection pattern. Q J R Meteorol Soc 132:2009–2030. https://doi.org/10.1256/qj.05.204
Kosaka Y, Xie S-P (2013) Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling. Nature 501:403–407. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature12534
Kosaka Y, Xie S-P (2016) The tropical Pacific as a key pacemaker of the variable rates of global warming. Nat Geosci 9:669–673. https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2770
Larson S, Kirtman B (2013) The Pacific meridional mode as a trigger for ENSO in a high-resolution coupled model. Geophys Res Lett 40:31899–33194. https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50571
Lee S, Wang C, Mapes BE (2009) A simple atmospheric model of the local and teleconnection responses to tropical heating anomalies. J Clim 22:272–284. https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2303.1
Li G, Xie S-P, Du Y, Luo Y (2016) Effects of excessive equatorial cold tongue bias on the projections of tropical Pacific climate change. Part I: the warming pattern in CMIP5 multi-model ensemble. Clim Dyn 47:3817–3831. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3043-5
Liu Z, Gao T, Zhang W, Luo M (2021) Implications of the Pacific meridional mode for summer precipitation extremes over China. Weather Clim Extremes 33:100359. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2021.100359
Luo J, Masson S, Roeckner E, Madec G, Yamagata T (2005) Reducing climatology bias in an ocean–atmosphere CGCM with improved coupling physics. J Clim 18:2344–2360. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3404.1
Luo M, Lau NC, Zhang W, Zhang Q, Liu Z (2020) Summer high temperature extremes over China linked to the Pacific meridional mode. J Clim 33:5905–5917. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0425.1
Lv Z, Yang J-C, Lin X, Zhang Y (2022) Stronger North Atlantic than tropical Pacific effects on North Pacific decadal prediction. J Clim 35:5773–5785. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0957.1
Min Q, Su J, Zhang R (2017) Impact of the South and North Pacific meridional modes on the El Niño-Southern Oscillation: observational analysis and comparison. J Clim 30:1705–1720. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0063.1
Newman M, Compo GP, Alexander MA (2003) ENSO-forced variability of the Pacific decadal oscillation. J Clim 16:3853–3857
Newman M, Alexander MA, Ault TR et al (2016) The Pacific decadal oscillation, revisited. J Clim 29:4399–4427. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0508.1
North GR, Bell TL, Cahalan RF, Moeng FJ (1982) Sampling errors in the estimation of empirical orthogonal functions. Mon Weather Rev 110:699–706. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1982)110%3c0699:SEITEO%3e2.0.CO;2
Pyper BJ, Peterman RM (1998) Comparison of methods to account for autocorrelation in correlation analyses of fish data. Can J Fish Aquat Sci 55:2127–2140. https://doi.org/10.1139/F98-104
Richter I, Stuecker MF, Takahashi N, Schneider N (2022) Disentangling the north Pacific meridional mode from tropical Pacific variability. NPJ Clim Atmos Sci 5:94. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-022-00317-8
Shakun JD, Shaman J (2009) Tropical origens of North and South Pacific decadal variability. Geophys Res Lett 36:L19711. https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL040313
Shu Q, Zhang Y, Amaya DJ et al (2023) Role of ocean advections during the evolution of the Pacific meridional modes. J Clim 36:4327–4343. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0296.1
Shukla J (1998) Predictability in the midst of chaos: a scientific basis for climate forecasting. Science 282:728–731. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.282.5389.728
Slivinski LC, Compo GP, Whitaker JS et al (2019) Towards a more reliable historical reanalysis: improvements for version 3 of the Twentieth Century Reanalysis system. Q J R Meteorol Soc 145:2876–2908. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3598
Stuecker MF (2018) Revisiting the Pacific meridional mode. Sci Rep 8:3216. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-21537-0
Tang H-S, Zhang Y, Kosaka Y, Yang J-C, Shu Q, Liu Y, Lin X (2024) Positive feedback between the negative phase of interannual component of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and La Niña. Clim Dyn. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-024-07346-4
Trenberth KE, Hurrell JW (1994) Decadal atmosphere-ocean variations in the Pacific. Clim Dyn 9:303–319. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00204745
Walker GT, Bliss EW (1932) World weather V. Mem R Meteorol Soc 4:53–84
Wang C (2018) A review of ENSO theories. Natl Sci Rev 5:813–825. https://doi.org/10.1093/nsr/nwy104
Xie S-P, Philander SGH (1994) A coupled ocean-atmosphere model of relevance to the ITCZ in the eastern Pacific. Tellus A 46:340–350. https://doi.org/10.1034/j.1600-0870.1994.t01-1-00001.x
Yang J-C, Lin X, Xie S-P, Zhang Y, Kosaka Y, Li Z (2020) Synchronized tropical Pacific and extratropical variability during the past three decades. Nat Clim Chang 10:422–427. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0753-9
Zhang W, Vecchi GA, Murakami H, Villarini G, Jia L (2016) The Pacific meridional mode and the occurrence of tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific. J Clim 29:381–398. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0282.1
Zhang W, Villarini G, Vecchi GA (2017) Impacts of the Pacific meridional mode on June–August precipitation in the Amazon River Basin. Q J R Meteorol Soc 143:1936–1945. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3053
Zhang Y, Xie S-P, Kosaka Y, Yang J-C (2018) Pacific decadal oscillation: tropical Pacific forcing versus internal variability. J Clim 31:8265–8279. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0164.1
Zhang Y, Yu S, Amaya DJ et al (2021) Pacific meridional modes without equatorial Pacific influence. J Clim 34:5285–5301. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0573.1
Zhang Y, Yu S-Y, Amaya DJ et al (2022) Atmospheric forcing of the Pacific meridional mode: tropical Pacific-driven versus internal variability. Geophys Res Lett 49:e2022. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL098148
Acknowledgements
Y.Z. and X.L. were supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41925025 and 92058203). Y.Z. was supported by Laoshan Laboratory (No. LSKJ202202602) and the project funded by China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (2021M703034). J.-C.Y. was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (42105019). S.W. was supported by Taishan Scholars Program (tsqn202306300). J.S. was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (42276006, 42230405, and 42006013). X.W. was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (42205016 and 42288101) and the National Key R&D Program of China (2023YFF0806700). We are grateful for the helpful discussions with Drs. Yu Kosaka and Malte F. Stuecker. We thank the Climate Variability & Change Working Group for producing the CESM2 Pacific Pacemaker Ensemble.
Funding
Y.Z. and X.L. were supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41925025 and 92058203). Y.Z. was supported by Laoshan Laboratory (No. LSKJ202202602) and the project funded by China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (2021M703034). J.-C.Y. was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (42105019). S.W. was supported by Taishan Scholars Program (tsqn202306300). J.S. was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (42276006, 42230405, and 42006013). X.W. was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (42205016 and 42288101) and the National Key R&D Program of China (2023YFF0806700).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Contributions
Y.Z. conceived the study and wrote the initial draft. Q.S. performed the analyses and plotted the figures. All the authors were involved in interpreting the results and improving the manuscript.
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Competing Interests
The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest or competing interests regarding the publication of this paper.
Additional information
Publisher's Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Supplementary Information
Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.
Rights and permissions
Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.
About this article
Cite this article
Shu, Q., Zhang, Y., Yang, JC. et al. Wintertime atmospheric forcing of subtropical northeastern Pacific SST variability. Clim Dyn 62, 10733–10746 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-024-07473-y
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-024-07473-y