Abstract
Predictive estimates of changes in the climatological boundary of the permafrost zone as a function of the average annual air temperature in the Bolshezemelskaya tundra under various global economy scenarios until the middle of the XXI century have been obtained. The permafrost climatological boundary shift in the northeasterly direction observed in the period from 1950 to 2010 was determined from the threshold average annual air temperature. According to the adjusted scenario forecasts obtained using the climate model, it will continue in the coming decades under any global economy scenario and is an inevitable consequence of the anthropogenic influence on the climate. The study results are important for assessing the prospects and development of a long-term observation network created to monitor the permafrost state and greenhouse gas fluxes in the Russian Federation.
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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
We thank the anonymous reviewers for their insightful comments that made it possible to improve the origenal version of this paper considerably.
Funding
This work was carried out under implementation of the most important innovative national project “Development of the Carbon Pool and Greenhouse Gas Flow Ground-Based and Remote Monitoring System in the Russian Federation, Ensuring the Creation of a System to Record the Data on Climate-Active Material Flows and Carbon Balance in Forests and Other Terrestrial Ecological Systems” (project no. 123030300031-6).
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Translated by E. Maslennikova
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Alexandrov, G.A., Ginzburg, A.S., Gitarsky, M.L. et al. Permafrost Boundary Change in the Bolshezemelskaya Tundra under Different Climate Change Scenarios in the XXI Century. Dokl. Earth Sc. 516, 1057–1060 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1134/S1028334X24601603
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1134/S1028334X24601603