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Decadal change in the sea level pressure prediction skill over the Mediterranean region and its contribution to downstream surface air temperature prediction

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Abstract

The Mediterranean region is located over the entrance of the Asian upper level jet. The anomalous atmospheric circulation over the region can excite wave train pattern propagating eastward and impacting the climate over the Eurasian continent. In this study, the summer (June–September) sea level pressure (SLP) prediction skill over the Mediterranean region is investigated, based on the May-start hindcasts of five state-of-the-art coupled models from the ENSEMBLES over the period of 1960–2005. The result shows that there are three models that exhibit an increased prediction skill for the Mediterranean SLP after the late 1970s. Tropical sea surface temperature (SST) is generally recognized as the major source for dynamical seasonal climate prediction. The analysis of the three models shows that they can capture well the observed impact of tropical Atlantic and Pacific SSTs on the Mediterranean atmospheric circulation after the late 1970s. Consequently, the three models have an increased prediction skill for the Mediterranean SLP over the time. In contrast, the other two models cannot reproduce the observed relationship of the Mediterranean SLP with the tropical Atlantic and Pacific SSTs, thereby exhibiting low prediction skill for the Mediterranean SLP. Further analysis indicates that the increased prediction of the Mediterranean SLP can improve dynamical prediction of surface air temperature (SAT) over the eastern Mediterranean and central East Asia, which is valuable for current regional dynamical seasonal climate prediction.

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Acknowledgements

We deeply thank the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP-NCAR), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Climatic Research Unit (CRU), Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA), University of Delaware, and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) for surface air temperature, atmospheric reanalysis data, SST data, and EMSEMBLES data. We are grateful to two anonymous reviewers for their valuable comments. This work was jointly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41522503 and 41421004).

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  1. Nansen-Zhu International Research Center, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, P.O. Box 9804, Beijing, 100029, China

    Jianqi Sun & Mengqi Zhang

  2. Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China

    Jianqi Sun

  3. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China

    Jianqi Sun & Mengqi Zhang

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Sun, J., Zhang, M. Decadal change in the sea level pressure prediction skill over the Mediterranean region and its contribution to downstream surface air temperature prediction. Clim Dyn 53, 5187–5202 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04854-6

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