SPC Convective Outlook Day 1

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799
ACUS01 KWNS 180056
SWODY1
SPC AC 180054

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0654 PM CST Tue Dec 17 2024

Valid 180100Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE ARK-LA-TEX AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Marginally severe thunderstorms associated with isolated severe
gusts and hail will be possible from late this evening into early
Wednesday morning from parts of the Ark-La-Tex into the mid
Mississippi Valley.

...Ark-La-Tex/Mid Mississippi Valley...
A mid-level trough will move southeastward across the central U.S.
tonight, as an associated cold front advances southeastward into the
Ark-La-Tex and mid Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the front, moisture
advection will gradually increase surface dewpoints into the lower
to mid 60s F from northeast Texas to western Tennessee. In response,
destabilization will take place ahead of the front with MUCAPE
increasing into the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. As low-level
convergence strengthens near the front late this evening, scattered
thunderstorm initiation is expected. As cell coverage increases, a
line of storms will likely develop just ahead of the front around
midnight. This line is forecast to move southeastward across the
Ark-La-Tex and mid Mississippi Valley during the overnight period.

RAP forecast soundings after midnight near the expected location of
the line in northeastern Arkansas have a temperature inversion in
the boundary layer, with instability primarily located above 700 mb.
This elevated instability combined with effective shear of 30 to 40
knots may be enough for a marginal severe threat overnight as the
low-level jet gradually strengthens. Severe gusts and hail will be
the primary threats, especially if cells can become surface-based
within the stronger low-level flow. As the line moves southeastward
across eastern Arkansas and western Tennessee late tonight into
early Wednesday morning, a brief tornado will also be possible.
However, low to mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be poor, which
will help to limit the severe weather risk.

..Broyles.. 12/18/2024

$$

The "Convective Outlooks" issued by SPC can be thought of as a detailed discussion of the Severe Thunderstorm threat and it's associated risks nationwide. Risk levels range from Marginal to Slight, Enhanced, Moderate, and High and are issued based on the likelihood of 3 major severe weather threats; the risk of tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail. These discussions are often heavily laced meteorological terminology that may be difficult to understand without a background in the field. However understanding these discussions shouldn't be thought of as necessary. Instead, should DuPage county fall under one of these threat levels for severe weather, the response should be to have a heightened level of awareness about the deveoloping weather. Keep an eye on the "Watch County Notification" for any active severe weather watches issued for DuPage county; the "Hazardous Weather Outlook" and "Severe Weather Statement" can also be helpful in explaining the developing risk; additionally, watch for "Active Weather Warnings" and keep an eye on our "Regional Satellite and Radar" products which can be viewed with active watches/warnings or lightning activity.

Hazardous Weather Outlook

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511
FLUS43 KLOT 172042
HWOLOT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL
242 PM CST Tue Dec 17 2024

ILZ003>006-008-010>013-019>021-023-032-033-039-103>108-INZ001-002-
010-011-019-182045-
Winnebago-Boone-McHenry-Lake IL-Ogle-Lee-De Kalb-Kane-DuPage-
La Salle-Kendall-Grundy-Kankakee-Livingston-Iroquois-Ford-
Northern Cook-Central Cook-Southern Cook-Northern Will-
Southern Will-Eastern Will-Lake IN-Porter-Newton-Jasper-Benton-
242 PM CST Tue Dec 17 2024 /342 PM EST Tue Dec 17 2024/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Illinois...northeast Illinois and northwest Indiana.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

Limited Snow Risk after midnight.

DISCUSSION...

A period of snow could result in a coating to locally around an
inch of accumulation, mainly north of I-80. Snow could accumulate
on untreated roads, leading to some travel impacts extending into
the Wednesday morning commute.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Thursday through Friday morning...
Limited Snow Risk.
Friday afternoon through Saturday...
Limited Snow Risk near Lake Michigan, mainly northwest Indiana.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be necessary through tonight.

$$

LMZ740>745-182045-
Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL-
Wilmette Harbor to Northerly Island IL-
Northerly Island to Calumet Harbor IL-
Calumet Harbor IL to Gary IN-Gary to Burns Harbor IN-
Burns Harbor to Michigan City IN-
242 PM CST Tue Dec 17 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Illinois
nearshore waters of Lake Michigan and the Indiana nearshore
waters of Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Wednesday...
Hazardous conditions for small craft are likely.
Friday and Saturday...
Hazardous conditions for small craft are likely.

$$

Doom

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The "Hazardous Weather Outlook" contains information regarding any and all weather expected to occur within the region that could be hazardous to travel, life or property. This is one of our most highly recommended products to check on a daily basis, and it some cases multiple times per day should significant weather be expected to affect DuPage county.

SPC Convective Outlook Day 2

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488
ACUS02 KWNS 171731
SWODY2
SPC AC 171730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CST Tue Dec 17 2024

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated damaging wind gusts and a brief tornado are possible
through mid-day Wednesday across portions of the Tennessee Valley.

...Synopsis...
A positively tilted upper trough will develop east across the
eastern U.S. on Wednesday. Moderate mid/upper level southwesterly
flow ahead of the trough will overspread the OH/TN Valleys into the
Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic regions. At the surface, a cold front
will extend from southern OH to southeast AR to central TX at the
beginning of the period. This front will develop southeast across
the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic, mostly moving offshore from the Gulf
and Atlantic coasts by Thursday morning.

...Northeast Texas to the Tennessee Valley...
Thunderstorms will be ongoing along a frontal zone from northeast
Texas to western Tennessee at the beginning of the forecast period.
These storms will likely be mostly anafrontal due to the
southeastward advancing cold front and storm motion parallel to the
front. In addition, these storms should already be in their
weakening phase by 12Z as they outrun the better low-level
instability. The only exception will be across western/middle
Tennessee between 12 and 18Z where some instability will remain and
stronger flow could promote more organization/propagation ahead of
the cold front. A damaging wind gust or a brief tornado cannot be
ruled out early in the forecast period. Despite the weakening
instability through the morning, some damaging wind threat could
persist into parts of eastern Tennessee and far southern Kentucky
through mid-day as the low-level jet strengthens to over 50 knots
during the morning hours.

...FL/GA/Carolinas...
Southerly flow ahead of the approaching mid-level trough will
establish low to mid 60s dewpoints across much of Florida into
eastern Georgia and the eastern Carolinas by Wednesday afternoon.
Weak to moderate instability is expected within a broad region of
weak isentropic ascent across the region. Upper-level forcing will
lag well behind the front which should keep any thunderstorm
development isolated. However, if any storms develop, they could
have some marginal hail/wind threat given moderate instability and
shear present across the region Wednesday afternoon. Storm coverage
concerns related to weak forcing are the primary limiting factor to
severe weather probabilities at this time.

..Bentley.. 12/17/2024

$$

The "Convective Outlooks" issued by SPC can be thought of as a detailed discussion of the Severe Thunderstorm threat and it's associated risks nationwide. Risk levels range from Marginal to Slight, Enhanced, Moderate, and High and are issued based on the likelihood of 3 major severe weather threats; the risk of tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail. These discussions are often heavily laced meteorological terminology that may be difficult to understand without a background in the field. However understanding these discussions shouldn't be thought of as necessary. Instead, should DuPage county fall under one of these threat levels for severe weather, the response should be to have a heightened level of awareness about the deveoloping weather. Keep an eye on the "Watch County Notification" for any active severe weather watches issued for DuPage county; the "Hazardous Weather Outlook" and "Severe Weather Statement" can also be helpful in explaining the developing risk; additionally, watch for "Active Weather Warnings" and keep an eye on our "Regional Satellite and Radar" products which can be viewed with active watches/warnings or lightning activity.

SPC Convective Outlook Day 3

See Product Description

673
ACUS03 KWNS 171915
SWODY3
SPC AC 171913

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0113 PM CST Tue Dec 17 2024

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.

...Synopsis...
A positively tilted mid-level trough will move from the Southeast
CONUS to the western Atlantic on Thursday. In addition, another
mid-level trough will dig south out of the Canadian Prairies into
the Upper Midwest while a ridge translates across the western CONUS.
A surface cold front will begin the period across northern Florida
and move south along the peninsula during the day.

...Florida...
Weak to moderate instability will develop ahead of the surface front
as it moves south along the Florida Peninsula during the day. Some
thunderstorms will be possible along the eastern and southern coast
of Florida during the afternoon where convergence and instability
will be maximized. However, lapse rates will be too weak to support
any severe weather potential.

..Bentley.. 12/17/2024

$$

The "Convective Outlooks" issued by SPC can be thought of as a detailed discussion of the Severe Thunderstorm threat and it's associated risks nationwide. Risk levels range from Marginal to Slight, Enhanced, Moderate, and High and are issued based on the likelihood of 3 major severe weather threats; the risk of tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail. These discussions are often heavily laced meteorological terminology that may be difficult to understand without a background in the field. However understanding these discussions shouldn't be thought of as necessary. Instead, should DuPage county fall under one of these threat levels for severe weather, the response should be to have a heightened level of awareness about the deveoloping weather. Keep an eye on the "Watch County Notification" for any active severe weather watches issued for DuPage county; the "Hazardous Weather Outlook" and "Severe Weather Statement" can also be helpful in explaining the developing risk; additionally, watch for "Active Weather Warnings" and keep an eye on our "Regional Satellite and Radar" products which can be viewed with active watches/warnings or lightning activity.

Special Weather Statement

See Product Description

No active Special Weather Statement for DuPage County.

The "Special Weather Statement" details notable weather either occuring or expected to occur, but does not necessarily have to be considered severe or hazardous. This is a supplementary product issued by the National Weather Service to help describe noteworthy weather. It's terminology should be reasonably easy to understand by the general public.

Watch County Notification

See Product Description

No active Watch County Notification for DuPage County.

The "Watch County Notification" will contain updates regarding active severe weather watches that pertain to DuPage county. This may be for a newly issued watch, or the cancelation of an existing watch. Severe weather watches come in two forms; Severe Thunderstorm and Tornado, and it should be noted that a Severe Thunderstorm Watch does NOT rule out the possibility of tornadoes occuring. It generally means that the tornado threat is minimal while damaging winds and hail are still likely. See our "Watch, Warning, and Advisory Criteria" for more detailed information on the differences and critera for watches, warnings and advisory for all forms of weather.

Winter Weather Statement

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No active Winter Weather Statement for DuPage County.

The "Winter Weather Statement" is a product aimed at the general public that will discuss impacts caused by winter weather. This may include information about watches, warnings and advisories as well as details about impactful winter weather that may not warrant the issuance of a watch, warning or advisory.

Severe Weather Statement

See Product Description

No active Severe Weather Statement for DuPage County.

The "Severe Weather Statement" is a product aimed at the general public that will discuss impacts caused by severe thunderstorms. This may include information about watches and warnings as well as details about impactful "sub-severe" weather that may not warrant the issuance of a watch or warning which sometimes may come when a watch or warning has been canceled.

Non-Precip Statement

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No active Non-Precip Statement for DuPage County.

The "Non-Precip Statement" is aimed at the general public and will detail notable weather that is either occuring or expected to occur, but does not relate to any form of precipitation. These would include but are not limited to high winds, reduced visibility or extreme temperatures.

Active Weather Warnings

Tornado Warnings

No active Tornado Warnings.

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings

No active Severe Thunderstorm Warnings.

Flood Warnings

No active Flood Warnings.

General Tornado/Severe Weather Safety

1. A Tornado or Severe Thunderstorm Warning is issued when it has been reported, or when it has been detected via National Weather Service radar. It is to be interpreted that this event is occuring and is expected to affect all warned areas. Those within the warning need to take action immediately.
2. If under a warning remain calm and if it is necessary to seek shelter. Students and Employees should head to their nearest designated shelter area. The route to these shelter areas are posted in all rooms on campus and signs are placed in the hallways to direct you to the nearest shelter area. Review these instructions and be familiar with where your nearest shelter is. Stay indoors, away from windows and large unsupported ceilings. Faculty should account for their students and Supervisors should account for their areas employees.
3. If outside, take shelter in the nearest building.
4. After the storm has passed, dial Police at 911 to report any injuries or damage to buildings.
5. If the building is severely damaged, evacuate the building as soon as possible after the storm has passed.