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Soaring Forecast for Moriarty NM
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
0725 MDT Wednesday October 15 2025
This forecast is for Wednesday, October 15, 2025:
If the trigger temperature of 70.3 F/21.3 C is reached...then
Thermal Soaring Index....................... Fair
Maximum rate of lift........................ 350 ft/min (1.8 m/s)
Maximum height of thermals.................. 11027 ft MSL (4698 ft AGL)
Forecast maximum temperature................... 73.0 F/23.2 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 1230 MDT
Time of overdevelopment........................ 1500 MDT
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... None
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 9256 ft MSL (2928 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Thursday 10/16..... Excellent
Remarks...
Sunrise/Sunset.................... 07:10:26 / 18:28:50 MDT
Total possible sunshine........... 11 hr 18 min 24 sec (678 min 24 sec)
Altitude of sun at 12:49:38 MDT... 46.13 degrees
Upper air data from numerical model forecast valid on 10/15/2025 at 0600 MDT
Freezing level.................. 15797 ft MSL (9468 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 12954 ft MSL (6625 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 11851 ft MSL (5522 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... -2.7
K index......................... +23.1
Height Temperature Wind Wind Spd Lapse Rate ConvectionT Thermal Lift Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft deg C deg F Index fpm m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -68.6 -91.5 215 53 27 4.0 2.2 73.2 163.8 29.8 M M
45000 -62.0 -79.6 220 66 34 5.4 3.0 61.0 141.9 24.2 M M
40000 -53.5 -64.3 215 74 38 7.6 4.2 52.0 125.6 19.8 M M
38000 -48.9 -56.0 215 67 35 7.6 4.2 49.9 121.8 18.8 M M
36000 -43.8 -46.8 215 61 31 7.7 4.2 48.3 118.9 18.2 M M
34000 -39.1 -38.4 210 56 29 7.9 4.3 46.4 115.6 17.3 M M
32000 -34.4 -29.9 210 53 27 8.0 4.4 45.1 113.3 16.7 M M
30000 -30.0 -22.0 210 52 27 7.1 3.9 43.0 109.5 15.5 M M
29000 -27.9 -18.2 215 52 27 7.1 3.9 42.1 107.7 14.9 M M
28000 -25.8 -14.4 215 51 26 7.1 3.9 41.2 106.2 14.4 M M
27000 -23.7 -10.7 215 49 25 7.0 3.9 40.1 104.1 13.6 M M
26000 -21.6 -6.9 215 48 25 7.0 3.9 39.0 102.3 13.0 M M
25000 -19.5 -3.1 215 46 24 7.1 3.9 38.1 100.6 12.4 M M
24000 -17.4 0.7 210 45 23 6.9 3.8 37.1 98.7 11.6 M M
23000 -15.4 4.3 210 44 22 6.9 3.8 36.0 96.8 10.8 M M
22000 -13.3 8.1 210 43 22 6.9 3.8 35.1 95.1 10.2 M M
21000 -11.2 11.8 210 42 22 7.1 3.9 34.1 93.3 9.4 M M
20000 -8.6 16.5 205 41 21 7.2 3.9 32.9 91.3 8.5 M M
19500 -7.5 18.5 205 41 21 7.1 3.9 32.5 90.6 8.2 M M
19000 -6.5 20.3 205 41 21 7.0 3.8 32.1 89.7 7.8 M M
18500 -5.4 22.3 205 40 21 7.0 3.8 31.6 88.9 7.4 M M
18000 -4.4 24.1 205 40 21 7.0 3.8 31.1 88.1 7.0 M M
17500 -3.4 25.9 205 40 21 7.0 3.8 30.7 87.2 6.6 M M
17000 -2.4 27.7 205 40 20 7.0 3.8 30.2 86.4 6.2 M M
16500 -1.3 29.7 205 40 20 7.1 3.9 29.8 85.6 5.8 M M
16000 -0.3 31.5 205 40 20 7.1 3.9 29.3 84.8 5.4 M M
15500 0.7 33.3 205 40 20 7.1 3.9 28.9 84.0 5.0 M M
15000 1.8 35.2 205 40 20 7.1 3.9 28.4 83.2 4.6 M M
14500 2.8 37.0 210 40 20 7.2 3.9 28.0 82.5 4.2 M M
14000 3.8 38.8 210 39 20 7.2 3.9 27.6 81.7 3.8 M M
13500 4.8 40.6 210 39 20 7.1 3.9 27.2 81.0 3.3 M M
13000 5.7 42.3 210 39 20 6.6 3.6 26.7 80.1 2.8 M M
12500 6.6 43.9 205 39 20 6.7 3.7 26.2 79.2 2.2 M M
12000 7.4 45.3 205 39 20 6.0 3.3 25.6 78.2 1.5 M M
11500 8.1 46.6 205 38 20 6.3 3.5 25.1 77.1 0.8 M M
11000 8.7 47.7 205 37 19 3.3 1.8 24.3 75.7 -0.0 349 1.8
10500 9.2 48.6 200 36 18 3.6 2.0 23.3 73.9 -1.1 321 1.6
10250 9.4 48.9 200 35 18 4.4 2.4 22.9 73.1 -1.5 306 1.6
10000 9.8 49.6 200 34 17 5.2 2.9 22.5 72.5 -1.9 288 1.5
9750 10.1 50.2 195 33 17 5.2 2.9 22.1 71.8 -2.3 270 1.4
9500 10.5 50.9 195 31 16 5.2 2.9 21.8 71.2 -2.6 251 1.3
9250 10.9 51.6 195 30 15 6.1 3.4 21.5 70.6 -3.0 232 1.2
9000 11.3 52.3 190 27 14 5.0 2.8 21.2 70.1 -3.3 211 1.1
8750 11.6 52.9 190 25 13 3.7 2.0 20.7 69.3 -3.7 195 1.0
8500 11.9 53.4 185 22 11 2.3 1.3 20.2 68.4 -4.2 180 0.9
8250 11.9 53.4 180 20 10 -1.5 -0.8 19.5 67.1 -4.9 172 0.9
8000 11.7 53.1 175 18 9 -2.5 -1.4 18.6 65.5 -5.8 170 0.9
7750 11.6 52.9 170 16 8 -2.9 -1.6 17.7 63.8 -6.7 168 0.9
7500 11.4 52.5 160 15 8 -0.8 -0.4 16.7 62.1 -7.7 166 0.8
7250 11.4 52.5 155 13 7 1.9 1.0 16.1 60.9 -8.3 156 0.8
7000 11.6 52.9 145 12 6 1.6 0.9 15.5 59.8 -9.0 146 0.7
6750 11.7 53.1 135 10 5 1.8 1.0 14.8 58.7 -9.6 135 0.7
6500 11.8 53.2 130 8 4 0.8 0.4 14.2 57.6 -10.3 125 0.6
6250 M M M M M M M M M M M M
* * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *
10/15/2025 at 0900 MDT | 10/15/2025 at 1200 MDT
|
CAPE... 0.0 LI... -1.2 | CAPE... +379.3 LI... -1.3
CINH... 0.0 K Index... +21.0 | CINH... -24.4 K Index... +20.4
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -68.4 -91.1 215 50 26 4.2 2.3 | -68.0 -90.4 215 53 27 3.7 2.0
45000 -61.4 -78.5 215 64 33 5.6 3.1 | -61.7 -79.1 210 68 35 5.6 3.0
40000 -52.8 -63.0 215 72 37 6.9 3.8 | -53.1 -63.6 215 69 36 7.4 4.1
38000 -48.6 -55.5 215 68 35 6.9 3.8 | -48.6 -55.5 215 67 35 7.4 4.1
36000 -44.0 -47.2 210 63 32 7.0 3.8 | -43.6 -46.5 210 65 34 7.4 4.1
34000 -39.4 -38.9 210 61 31 7.7 4.2 | -39.2 -38.6 210 63 33 7.3 4.0
32000 -34.8 -30.6 215 58 30 7.7 4.2 | -34.9 -30.8 210 61 32 7.3 4.0
30000 -30.4 -22.7 210 55 28 7.2 3.9 | -30.6 -23.1 210 58 30 7.1 3.9
29000 -28.3 -18.9 210 53 27 7.2 3.9 | -28.5 -19.3 210 56 29 7.1 3.9
28000 -26.1 -15.0 210 51 27 7.0 3.9 | -26.4 -15.5 210 54 28 7.1 3.9
27000 -24.1 -11.4 210 50 26 6.9 3.8 | -24.2 -11.6 210 53 27 7.2 3.9
26000 -22.0 -7.6 210 48 25 6.9 3.8 | -22.1 -7.8 210 51 26 7.2 3.9
25000 -20.0 -4.0 210 46 24 6.8 3.7 | -19.9 -3.8 210 50 26 7.1 3.9
24000 -17.7 0.1 210 45 23 7.6 4.2 | -17.6 0.3 210 50 25 7.9 4.3
23000 -15.5 4.1 205 44 23 7.6 4.2 | -15.3 4.5 210 49 25 7.9 4.3
22000 -13.2 8.2 205 44 22 7.6 4.2 | -12.9 8.8 210 49 25 7.9 4.3
21000 -11.1 12.0 205 43 22 7.0 3.8 | -10.8 12.6 210 48 25 6.9 3.8
20000 -8.6 16.5 205 43 22 7.0 3.9 | -8.3 17.1 210 48 25 7.0 3.8
19500 -7.6 18.3 205 43 22 7.1 3.9 | -7.3 18.9 210 48 25 7.0 3.8
19000 -6.5 20.3 205 43 22 6.9 3.8 | -6.3 20.7 210 48 24 6.7 3.7
18500 -5.5 22.1 205 43 22 7.0 3.8 | -5.3 22.5 210 47 24 6.8 3.7
18000 -4.5 23.9 205 43 22 7.3 4.0 | -4.3 24.3 210 47 24 6.6 3.6
17500 -3.4 25.9 205 43 22 7.4 4.1 | -3.4 25.9 210 46 24 6.5 3.6
17000 -2.3 27.9 205 42 22 7.4 4.1 | -2.4 27.7 210 46 24 6.5 3.6
16500 -1.2 29.8 205 42 22 7.1 3.9 | -1.4 29.5 210 45 23 6.7 3.7
16000 -0.2 31.6 205 42 22 7.2 3.9 | -0.5 31.1 210 45 23 6.7 3.7
15500 0.8 33.4 205 42 22 7.0 3.8 | 0.5 32.9 210 45 23 7.0 3.8
15000 1.8 35.2 210 42 22 7.0 3.9 | 1.5 34.7 205 45 23 7.1 3.9
14500 2.8 37.0 210 42 22 6.8 3.7 | 2.5 36.5 205 45 23 7.3 4.0
14000 3.8 38.8 210 41 21 6.6 3.6 | 3.5 38.3 205 44 23 7.5 4.1
13500 4.7 40.5 210 41 21 6.6 3.6 | 4.6 40.3 205 44 23 7.4 4.0
13000 5.6 42.1 205 40 21 6.6 3.6 | 5.5 41.9 205 43 22 6.8 3.7
12500 6.5 43.7 205 39 20 6.7 3.7 | 6.5 43.7 205 42 21 6.6 3.6
12000 7.3 45.1 205 39 20 6.2 3.4 | 7.1 44.8 205 39 20 3.4 1.9
11500 8.0 46.4 205 38 19 6.1 3.3 | 7.4 45.3 200 36 19 3.5 1.9
11000 8.7 47.7 200 37 19 4.8 2.6 | 7.7 45.9 195 32 17 2.2 1.2
10500 9.4 48.9 200 35 18 4.9 2.7 | 7.9 46.2 190 27 14 2.2 1.2
10250 9.7 49.5 200 35 18 4.8 2.6 | 8.1 46.6 190 25 13 5.7 3.1
10000 10.1 50.2 200 34 17 4.3 2.4 | 8.7 47.7 185 24 13 8.1 4.5
9750 10.4 50.7 195 32 17 4.2 2.3 | 9.2 48.6 185 23 12 7.3 4.0
9500 10.6 51.1 195 31 16 4.1 2.2 | 9.7 49.5 180 22 11 7.6 4.2
9250 10.9 51.6 195 29 15 3.4 1.9 | 10.3 50.5 180 21 11 9.6 5.3
9000 11.1 52.0 195 27 14 2.2 1.2 | 11.1 52.0 180 21 11 9.6 5.3
8750 11.2 52.2 190 24 12 1.6 0.9 | 11.7 53.1 175 20 10 8.1 4.4
8500 11.3 52.3 185 21 11 1.2 0.7 | 12.4 54.3 175 20 10 8.8 4.8
8250 11.3 52.3 180 19 10 0.2 0.1 | 13.1 55.6 175 19 10 9.6 5.3
8000 11.3 52.3 175 16 8 -0.1 -0.1 | 13.8 56.8 175 19 10 9.9 5.4
7750 11.2 52.2 165 14 7 -3.3 -1.8 | 14.5 58.1 170 18 9 9.3 5.1
7500 11.0 51.8 155 13 7 0.4 0.2 | 15.2 59.4 170 18 9 9.7 5.3
7250 11.3 52.3 150 11 6 6.3 3.5 | 15.9 60.6 170 17 9 10.4 5.7
7000 11.7 53.1 145 10 5 5.1 2.8 | 16.7 62.1 165 17 9 10.2 5.6
6750 12.1 53.8 135 9 5 7.4 4.0 | 17.5 63.5 165 16 8 10.2 5.6
6500 12.9 55.2 135 9 4 12.8 7.0 | 18.3 64.9 160 15 8 15.3 8.4
6250 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
10/15/2025 at 1500 MDT | 10/15/2025 at 1800 MDT
|
CAPE... +728.7 LI... -2.9 | CAPE... +476.3 LI... -2.4
CINH... -0.5 K Index... +20.3 | CINH... -6.9 K Index... +17.3
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -67.7 -89.9 220 52 27 3.5 1.9 | -67.7 -89.9 215 48 25 3.7 2.0
45000 -61.3 -78.3 215 67 34 6.1 3.3 | -60.9 -77.6 210 61 31 6.0 3.3
40000 -52.2 -62.0 210 67 34 6.8 3.8 | -51.9 -61.4 215 66 34 6.7 3.7
38000 -48.1 -54.6 210 66 34 6.8 3.7 | -47.9 -54.2 215 67 35 6.7 3.7
36000 -44.0 -47.2 210 66 34 6.8 3.8 | -43.8 -46.8 215 68 35 6.7 3.7
34000 -39.0 -38.2 210 65 34 7.6 4.1 | -39.5 -39.1 215 67 35 7.5 4.1
32000 -34.5 -30.1 215 65 33 7.6 4.2 | -34.4 -29.9 215 66 34 7.5 4.1
30000 -30.3 -22.5 215 63 33 6.8 3.7 | -30.4 -22.7 215 64 33 6.5 3.6
29000 -28.2 -18.8 215 62 32 6.8 3.7 | -28.4 -19.1 215 63 33 6.5 3.6
28000 -26.2 -15.2 215 61 32 6.9 3.8 | -26.5 -15.7 215 63 32 6.6 3.6
27000 -24.1 -11.4 215 60 31 6.9 3.8 | -24.5 -12.1 215 61 32 6.8 3.7
26000 -22.0 -7.6 215 59 30 7.0 3.8 | -22.4 -8.3 215 60 31 6.8 3.7
25000 -20.0 -4.0 215 58 30 7.0 3.8 | -20.4 -4.7 215 59 30 6.8 3.7
24000 -17.9 -0.2 215 57 29 7.0 3.8 | -18.3 -0.9 215 57 29 7.0 3.9
23000 -15.8 3.6 215 55 29 7.0 3.8 | -16.2 2.8 215 55 28 7.0 3.9
22000 -13.7 7.3 220 54 28 7.0 3.8 | -14.1 6.6 215 53 27 7.0 3.9
21000 -11.6 11.1 220 53 27 6.9 3.8 | -12.0 10.4 215 51 26 7.1 3.9
20000 -9.6 14.7 215 52 27 6.9 3.8 | -9.8 14.4 215 50 26 7.1 3.9
19500 -8.6 16.5 215 51 26 6.9 3.8 | -8.8 16.2 215 49 25 7.1 3.9
19000 -7.1 19.2 215 50 26 7.2 3.9 | -7.7 18.1 215 48 25 6.9 3.8
18500 -6.0 21.2 215 49 25 7.2 3.9 | -6.3 20.7 215 47 24 6.7 3.7
18000 -5.0 23.0 215 48 25 7.0 3.9 | -5.3 22.5 210 46 24 6.8 3.7
17500 -4.0 24.8 215 47 24 6.9 3.8 | -4.3 24.3 210 45 23 6.9 3.8
17000 -3.0 26.6 210 46 24 6.9 3.8 | -3.3 26.1 210 44 23 6.9 3.8
16500 -2.0 28.4 210 46 24 7.0 3.9 | -2.3 27.9 210 44 22 7.1 3.9
16000 -0.9 30.4 210 45 23 7.0 3.8 | -1.3 29.7 210 43 22 7.1 3.9
15500 0.1 32.2 205 45 23 7.0 3.8 | -0.2 31.6 205 42 22 7.3 4.0
15000 1.1 34.0 205 44 23 7.0 3.9 | 0.9 33.6 205 42 21 7.4 4.0
14500 2.1 35.8 205 43 22 6.9 3.8 | 1.9 35.4 205 41 21 7.2 4.0
14000 3.1 37.6 200 42 22 6.7 3.7 | 2.9 37.2 205 40 20 6.8 3.7
13500 4.0 39.2 200 41 21 6.6 3.6 | 3.9 39.0 205 39 20 6.8 3.7
13000 4.7 40.5 200 38 19 5.3 2.9 | 4.7 40.5 205 37 19 6.0 3.3
12500 5.3 41.5 195 34 18 5.7 3.1 | 5.5 41.9 205 35 18 6.3 3.5
12000 6.2 43.2 190 32 16 8.1 4.4 | 6.2 43.2 205 33 17 6.2 3.4
11500 7.2 45.0 190 30 15 8.5 4.7 | 7.0 44.6 200 30 16 6.3 3.4
11000 8.5 47.3 190 29 15 9.2 5.0 | 8.0 46.4 200 29 15 8.7 4.8
10500 9.9 49.8 190 28 15 9.3 5.1 | 9.2 48.6 200 27 14 8.4 4.6
10250 10.5 50.9 185 28 15 8.8 4.8 | 9.8 49.6 200 27 14 9.6 5.2
10000 11.2 52.2 185 28 15 8.9 4.9 | 10.6 51.1 200 27 14 10.2 5.6
9750 11.9 53.4 185 28 14 9.6 5.3 | 11.3 52.3 200 27 14 9.6 5.2
9500 12.6 54.7 185 28 14 9.1 5.0 | 12.0 53.6 200 26 14 9.4 5.2
9250 13.3 55.9 185 28 14 11.0 6.0 | 12.7 54.9 200 26 14 10.7 5.9
9000 14.1 57.4 185 28 14 10.5 5.7 | 13.5 56.3 200 26 13 10.5 5.8
8750 14.8 58.6 185 28 14 8.3 4.6 | 14.2 57.6 200 26 13 9.0 4.9
8500 15.4 59.7 185 28 14 8.9 4.9 | 14.9 58.8 200 26 13 9.4 5.1
8250 16.1 61.0 185 27 14 9.8 5.4 | 15.6 60.1 200 25 13 9.8 5.4
8000 16.9 62.4 185 27 14 10.3 5.6 | 16.3 61.3 200 25 13 9.9 5.4
7750 17.6 63.7 185 27 14 9.3 5.1 | 17.0 62.6 200 24 13 9.3 5.1
7500 18.3 64.9 185 27 14 9.5 5.2 | 17.7 63.9 200 24 12 9.1 5.0
7250 19.0 66.2 185 26 14 10.2 5.6 | 18.4 65.1 200 23 12 9.1 5.0
7000 19.8 67.6 185 26 13 10.7 5.9 | 19.0 66.2 200 22 11 8.9 4.9
6750 20.6 69.1 185 25 13 9.7 5.3 | 19.7 67.5 200 20 11 9.0 5.0
6500 21.3 70.3 185 24 12 12.8 7.0 | 20.3 68.5 200 19 10 6.9 3.8
6250 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
________________________________________________________________________________
This product is issued once per day, at approximately 730 AM local
time. It is not continuously monitored nor updated after its initial
issuance.
The information contained herein is based on numerical weather prediction
model data for the Moriarty Municipal Airport site in Moriarty, New Mexico at
North Latitude: 34.9781667 deg
West Longitude: 106.0000278 deg
Elevation: 6204.2 feet (1891.0 meters)
and may not be representative of other areas along and east of the Sandia
and Manzano Mountains. Note that some elevations in numerical weather
prediction models differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to
data which appear to be below ground. Erroneous data such as these should
not be used.
The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice. Comments are welcome and should be directed
to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this page.
DEFINITIONS:
CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
area on a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. Larger
values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms. Values around or
greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
convective activity develop.
CINH (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. The more negative
this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection. This
inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)
Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
just becomes saturated. It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
produced by surface heating only.
Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level. It can be considered a
"trigger temperature" for that level.
Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.
Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists. The location and
existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
waves.
K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface. Larger
positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
thunderstorm development. One interpretation of K index values regarding
soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
and is reproduced in the following table:
below -10 no or weak thermals
-10 to 5 dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
5 to 15 good soaring conditions
15 to 20 good soaring conditions with occasional showers
20 to 30 excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
probability of showers and thunderstorms
above 30 more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms
Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
inversions.
Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.
Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
level. The parcel's initial temperature is the forecast maximum
temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
feet of the airmass. Negative values are indicative of instability with
positive values showing stable conditions.
Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals. It is
computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
are applied to these calculations.
Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.
Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals. It
is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
above the ground. After this computation, further empirical adjustments
are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment.
Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds. Broken means that
between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
that little sunlight is reaching the ground.
Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind speed no longer increases with height
PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
sea level). Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.
Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
and the time of overdevelopment.
Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level. Negative values
are indicative of thermal lift.
Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:
Maximum rate of lift Adjective Rating
>= 800 fpm Excellent
>= 400 and < 800 fpm Good
>= 200 and < 400 fpm Fair
< 200 fpm Poor
Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
3. initiation of widespread precipitation
Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
reach the trigger temperature.
Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.
Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
soaring into a single index number. Objective points are assigned to
these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
movements.
042613
Soaring Forecast for Albuquerque NM
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
0724 MDT Wednesday October 15 2025
This forecast is for Wednesday, October 15, 2025:
If the trigger temperature of 71.3 F/21.8 C is reached...then
Thermal Soaring Index....................... Fair
Maximum rate of lift........................ 429 ft/min (2.2 m/s)
Maximum height of thermals.................. 11480 ft MSL (5799 ft AGL)
Forecast maximum temperature................... 76.0 F/24.9 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 1145 MDT
Time of overdevelopment........................ None
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... None
Surface winds during soaring window............ Between 20 mph and 30 mph
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 9286 ft MSL (3605 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Thursday 10/16..... Excellent
Remarks...
Sunrise/Sunset.................... 07:12:58 / 18:31:16 MDT
Total possible sunshine........... 11 hr 18 min 18 sec (678 min 18 sec)
Altitude of sun at 12:52:07 MDT... 46.10 degrees
Upper air data from numerical model forecast valid on 10/15/2025 at 0600 MDT
Freezing level.................. 15545 ft MSL (9864 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 11239 ft MSL (5558 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 11397 ft MSL (5716 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... -3.5
K index......................... +22.1
Height Temperature Wind Wind Spd Lapse Rate ConvectionT Thermal Lift Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft deg C deg F Index fpm m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -68.5 -91.3 215 53 27 4.0 2.2 75.6 168.1 30.0 M M
45000 -61.5 -78.7 215 64 33 6.4 3.5 64.1 147.3 24.9 M M
40000 -51.9 -61.4 210 73 38 6.2 3.4 56.8 134.2 21.7 M M
38000 -47.7 -53.9 215 70 36 6.2 3.4 53.0 127.4 19.8 M M
36000 -43.9 -47.0 215 67 35 6.2 3.4 50.4 122.6 18.4 M M
34000 -39.6 -39.3 215 65 34 7.3 4.0 48.0 118.4 17.2 M M
32000 -35.2 -31.4 215 64 33 7.3 4.0 46.3 115.3 16.3 M M
30000 -30.7 -23.3 210 60 31 7.5 4.1 44.3 111.8 15.2 M M
29000 -28.5 -19.3 210 58 30 7.5 4.1 43.5 110.3 14.7 M M
28000 -26.2 -15.2 205 56 29 7.4 4.0 42.8 109.1 14.3 M M
27000 -24.1 -11.4 210 54 28 7.0 3.8 41.7 107.0 13.6 M M
26000 -22.0 -7.6 210 51 26 7.0 3.8 40.6 105.1 12.9 M M
25000 -20.0 -4.0 210 49 25 7.0 3.8 39.7 103.5 12.3 M M
24000 -17.8 -0.0 210 47 24 7.4 4.1 38.8 101.8 11.7 M M
23000 -15.0 5.0 210 45 23 7.4 4.1 37.7 99.8 10.9 M M
22000 -12.8 9.0 210 44 23 7.3 4.0 36.9 98.5 10.4 M M
21000 -10.7 12.7 210 44 22 7.1 3.9 35.9 96.7 9.7 M M
20000 -8.6 16.5 210 43 22 7.1 3.9 35.0 95.0 9.0 M M
19500 -7.5 18.5 210 43 22 7.1 3.9 34.6 94.2 8.7 M M
19000 -6.5 20.3 210 44 22 6.7 3.7 34.1 93.4 8.3 M M
18500 -5.5 22.1 210 44 23 6.7 3.7 33.6 92.4 7.9 M M
18000 -4.5 23.9 210 44 23 6.7 3.7 33.1 91.5 7.4 M M
17500 -3.5 25.7 210 45 23 6.7 3.7 32.5 90.5 7.0 M M
17000 -2.6 27.3 210 45 23 6.8 3.7 32.0 89.6 6.5 M M
16500 -1.7 28.9 210 45 23 6.1 3.3 31.5 88.6 6.0 M M
16000 -0.8 30.6 210 45 23 6.2 3.4 30.9 87.5 5.4 M M
15500 0.1 32.2 210 44 23 6.1 3.3 30.3 86.5 4.8 M M
15000 0.9 33.6 210 44 22 6.0 3.3 29.6 85.3 4.2 M M
14500 1.7 35.1 210 43 22 6.3 3.4 29.0 84.3 3.6 M M
14000 2.6 36.7 210 42 22 6.7 3.7 28.5 83.3 3.0 M M
13500 3.5 38.3 205 41 21 6.8 3.8 28.0 82.4 2.5 M M
13000 4.3 39.7 205 41 21 6.6 3.6 27.5 81.5 1.9 M M
12500 5.2 41.4 205 40 21 6.7 3.7 27.0 80.6 1.3 M M
12000 6.0 42.8 200 40 21 6.8 3.7 26.5 79.8 0.7 M M
11500 6.9 44.4 200 39 20 7.0 3.8 26.1 78.9 0.1 M M
11000 7.8 46.0 195 38 20 5.6 3.1 25.5 78.0 -0.5 398 2.0
10500 8.6 47.5 190 36 19 5.8 3.2 24.9 76.8 -1.2 359 1.8
10250 9.0 48.2 190 35 18 5.5 3.0 24.6 76.3 -1.5 340 1.7
10000 9.3 48.7 190 33 17 5.1 2.8 24.2 75.6 -1.9 321 1.6
9750 9.7 49.5 190 31 16 5.0 2.7 23.9 75.0 -2.2 303 1.5
9500 10.0 50.0 185 29 15 5.7 3.1 23.5 74.3 -2.6 286 1.5
9250 10.5 50.9 185 26 14 6.2 3.4 23.2 73.8 -2.9 265 1.3
9000 10.9 51.6 180 25 13 5.7 3.1 22.9 73.3 -3.2 245 1.2
8750 11.7 53.1 180 21 11 5.7 3.1 22.3 72.1 -3.9 206 1.0
8500 12.1 53.8 175 19 10 6.2 3.4 22.0 71.6 -4.2 186 0.9
8250 12.6 54.7 175 18 9 5.8 3.2 21.7 71.1 -4.5 165 0.8
8000 13.0 55.4 170 16 8 5.4 3.0 21.4 70.5 -4.8 145 0.7
7750 13.4 56.1 165 14 7 5.3 2.9 21.1 69.9 -5.1 125 0.6
7500 13.8 56.8 160 11 6 4.0 2.2 20.7 69.3 -5.5 107 0.5
7250 14.0 57.2 155 8 4 1.3 0.7 20.2 68.3 -6.0 94 0.5
7000 14.0 57.2 140 7 3 -0.1 -0.0 19.5 67.0 -6.7 86 0.4
6750 14.0 57.2 115 6 3 0.5 0.3 18.7 65.7 -7.5 78 0.4
6500 14.0 57.2 100 5 3 0.5 0.3 18.1 64.5 -8.2 69 0.4
6250 14.1 57.4 080 5 2 1.5 0.8 17.4 63.3 -8.9 61 0.3
6000 14.2 57.6 070 4 2 2.0 1.1 16.8 62.2 -9.5 49 0.2
5750 14.1 57.4 060 4 2 -9.8 -5.4 15.9 60.6 -10.4 47 0.2
5500 M M M M M M M M M M M M
* * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *
10/15/2025 at 0900 MDT | 10/15/2025 at 1200 MDT
|
CAPE... +24.0 LI... -1.0 | CAPE... +471.9 LI... -1.4
CINH... -196.7 K Index... +20.3 | CINH... -14.0 K Index... +19.0
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -68.0 -90.4 215 53 27 3.9 2.2 | -68.1 -90.6 215 54 28 4.4 2.4
45000 -61.2 -78.2 215 64 33 6.2 3.4 | -61.1 -78.0 210 68 35 5.4 3.0
40000 -51.9 -61.4 210 72 37 6.5 3.6 | -52.8 -63.0 215 73 38 7.1 3.9
38000 -47.6 -53.7 210 71 36 6.5 3.6 | -48.6 -55.5 210 73 37 7.0 3.9
36000 -43.7 -46.7 210 69 36 6.4 3.5 | -43.9 -47.0 210 72 37 7.0 3.8
34000 -39.4 -38.9 210 68 35 7.1 3.9 | -39.4 -38.9 210 71 37 7.5 4.1
32000 -35.2 -31.4 210 66 34 7.1 3.9 | -34.9 -30.8 210 70 36 7.6 4.1
30000 -30.9 -23.6 210 63 32 7.1 3.9 | -30.8 -23.4 215 66 34 6.5 3.6
29000 -28.8 -19.8 210 60 31 7.1 3.9 | -28.9 -20.0 215 64 33 6.5 3.6
28000 -26.7 -16.1 210 58 30 7.1 3.9 | -26.9 -16.4 215 62 32 6.6 3.6
27000 -24.6 -12.3 210 56 29 7.1 3.9 | -24.8 -12.6 215 60 31 7.0 3.8
26000 -22.5 -8.5 210 54 28 7.1 3.9 | -22.8 -9.0 215 58 30 7.0 3.8
25000 -20.4 -4.7 210 52 27 7.0 3.9 | -20.7 -5.3 215 56 29 6.9 3.8
24000 -18.2 -0.8 210 50 26 7.5 4.1 | -18.5 -1.3 215 55 28 7.6 4.2
23000 -15.4 4.3 210 49 25 7.5 4.1 | -15.6 3.9 210 54 28 7.6 4.2
22000 -13.1 8.4 210 48 25 7.5 4.1 | -13.3 8.1 210 53 27 7.6 4.2
21000 -10.9 12.4 205 48 25 7.5 4.1 | -11.1 12.0 210 53 27 7.6 4.2
20000 -8.7 16.3 205 48 24 7.5 4.1 | -8.8 16.2 210 52 27 7.6 4.2
19500 -7.6 18.3 205 47 24 7.5 4.1 | -7.7 18.1 210 52 27 7.7 4.2
19000 -6.5 20.3 205 47 24 6.9 3.8 | -6.6 20.1 210 51 26 6.9 3.8
18500 -5.5 22.1 205 47 24 7.0 3.8 | -5.6 21.9 210 51 26 7.0 3.8
18000 -4.4 24.1 205 47 24 6.7 3.7 | -4.5 23.9 210 51 26 6.8 3.8
17500 -3.5 25.7 205 47 24 6.3 3.4 | -3.6 25.5 210 50 26 6.6 3.6
17000 -2.6 27.3 205 47 24 6.4 3.5 | -2.6 27.3 210 50 26 6.7 3.7
16500 -1.8 28.8 205 47 24 5.9 3.2 | -1.7 28.9 205 49 25 6.3 3.5
16000 -0.9 30.4 210 47 24 6.0 3.3 | -0.8 30.6 205 48 25 6.4 3.5
15500 -0.1 31.8 210 47 24 6.4 3.5 | 0.1 32.2 205 48 25 6.4 3.5
15000 0.8 33.4 210 46 24 6.6 3.6 | 1.0 33.8 205 47 24 6.4 3.5
14500 1.7 35.1 210 46 24 6.7 3.7 | 1.9 35.4 205 46 24 6.6 3.6
14000 2.7 36.9 210 45 23 6.9 3.8 | 2.9 37.2 205 45 23 7.0 3.8
13500 3.7 38.7 205 44 23 6.9 3.8 | 3.9 39.0 205 44 23 7.0 3.8
13000 4.7 40.5 205 43 22 7.4 4.1 | 4.9 40.8 205 43 22 7.5 4.1
12500 5.7 42.3 205 42 21 7.5 4.1 | 6.0 42.8 200 42 21 7.9 4.3
12000 6.7 44.1 205 40 21 7.1 3.9 | 6.7 44.1 200 39 20 4.0 2.2
11500 7.6 45.7 200 39 20 7.5 4.1 | 7.2 45.0 195 36 18 4.7 2.6
11000 8.4 47.1 200 38 19 5.3 2.9 | 7.6 45.7 190 32 17 4.1 2.2
10500 9.1 48.4 195 36 19 5.8 3.2 | 8.1 46.6 185 29 15 5.2 2.8
10250 9.5 49.1 195 35 18 4.9 2.7 | 8.5 47.3 185 27 14 6.4 3.5
10000 9.7 49.5 195 34 18 3.5 1.9 | 8.9 48.0 180 26 13 6.3 3.4
9750 9.9 49.8 195 33 17 3.6 1.9 | 9.4 48.9 180 25 13 6.4 3.5
9500 10.2 50.4 190 31 16 3.8 2.1 | 9.8 49.6 180 24 12 6.3 3.5
9250 10.5 50.9 190 30 15 5.0 2.7 | 10.3 50.5 175 23 12 8.0 4.4
9000 10.9 51.6 185 28 14 5.5 3.0 | 10.9 51.6 175 22 11 9.3 5.1
8750 11.6 52.9 180 24 12 5.2 2.9 | 11.6 52.9 175 22 11 9.1 5.0
8500 12.0 53.6 180 22 11 4.9 2.7 | 12.9 55.2 175 21 11 8.5 4.7
8250 12.3 54.1 175 20 10 5.6 3.1 | 13.6 56.5 175 21 11 9.4 5.2
8000 12.8 55.0 175 19 10 5.9 3.2 | 14.3 57.7 175 20 11 10.0 5.5
7750 13.2 55.8 170 17 9 6.4 3.5 | 15.1 59.2 175 20 10 9.6 5.3
7500 13.7 56.7 170 16 8 7.5 4.1 | 15.7 60.3 175 20 10 9.1 5.0
7250 14.2 57.6 170 14 7 4.5 2.5 | 16.4 61.5 175 19 10 9.9 5.4
7000 14.4 57.9 160 12 6 2.4 1.3 | 17.2 63.0 175 19 10 10.7 5.9
6750 14.6 58.3 155 10 5 2.5 1.4 | 18.0 64.4 175 18 9 10.3 5.6
6500 14.7 58.5 145 8 4 1.6 0.9 | 18.7 65.7 175 18 9 10.4 5.7
6250 14.9 58.8 125 6 3 3.3 1.8 | 19.5 67.1 175 17 9 9.6 5.3
6000 15.3 59.5 115 5 3 8.7 4.8 | 20.3 68.5 175 16 8 13.7 7.5
5750 16.2 61.2 095 5 2 15.6 8.5 | 22.2 72.0 180 14 7 47.7 26.2
5500 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
10/15/2025 at 1500 MDT | 10/15/2025 at 1800 MDT
|
CAPE... +433.2 LI... -1.5 | CAPE... +457.2 LI... -1.7
CINH... -0.4 K Index... +15.1 | CINH... -11.2 K Index... +22.2
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -67.9 -90.2 220 54 28 3.9 2.1 | -67.5 -89.5 220 50 26 3.7 2.0
45000 -61.1 -78.0 215 65 34 5.4 3.0 | -60.9 -77.6 215 64 33 5.8 3.2
40000 -52.8 -63.0 215 72 37 7.2 4.0 | -52.1 -61.8 215 73 38 6.9 3.8
38000 -48.5 -55.3 210 72 37 7.1 3.9 | -48.0 -54.4 210 73 38 6.8 3.8
36000 -43.7 -46.7 210 73 37 7.1 3.9 | -43.8 -46.8 210 74 38 6.9 3.8
34000 -39.2 -38.6 210 71 37 7.7 4.2 | -39.5 -39.1 210 73 37 7.4 4.0
32000 -34.6 -30.3 215 70 36 7.7 4.2 | -35.1 -31.2 210 71 36 7.4 4.0
30000 -30.6 -23.1 215 68 35 6.3 3.4 | -31.2 -24.2 215 67 34 6.0 3.3
29000 -28.7 -19.7 215 67 34 6.3 3.4 | -29.4 -20.9 215 64 33 6.0 3.3
28000 -26.9 -16.4 215 66 34 6.3 3.5 | -27.1 -16.8 220 60 31 6.4 3.5
27000 -24.8 -12.6 215 64 33 6.8 3.7 | -25.0 -13.0 220 59 30 7.1 3.9
26000 -22.8 -9.0 215 62 32 6.8 3.7 | -22.9 -9.2 215 57 29 7.1 3.9
25000 -20.8 -5.4 215 60 31 6.8 3.7 | -20.7 -5.3 215 55 28 7.0 3.9
24000 -18.6 -1.5 215 58 30 7.5 4.1 | -18.5 -1.3 215 54 28 7.5 4.1
23000 -16.4 2.5 215 57 29 7.5 4.1 | -16.3 2.7 215 53 27 7.5 4.1
22000 -13.6 7.5 215 54 28 7.5 4.1 | -14.0 6.8 215 52 27 7.6 4.1
21000 -11.3 11.7 210 53 27 7.4 4.1 | -11.8 10.8 215 51 26 7.4 4.1
20000 -9.1 15.6 210 52 27 7.4 4.1 | -9.5 14.9 215 50 26 7.4 4.1
19500 -8.0 17.6 210 52 27 7.4 4.1 | -8.4 16.9 215 50 26 7.4 4.1
19000 -6.9 19.6 210 51 26 7.1 3.9 | -7.3 18.9 215 49 25 7.3 4.0
18500 -5.9 21.4 210 51 26 7.1 3.9 | -6.2 20.8 215 48 25 7.2 4.0
18000 -4.8 23.4 210 51 26 7.1 3.9 | -5.2 22.6 215 48 25 7.2 3.9
17500 -3.8 25.2 210 50 26 7.0 3.9 | -4.2 24.4 215 47 24 5.8 3.2
17000 -2.8 27.0 210 50 26 7.1 3.9 | -3.3 26.1 220 45 23 6.0 3.3
16500 -1.8 28.8 210 49 25 6.6 3.6 | -2.5 27.5 220 44 22 4.8 2.6
16000 -0.8 30.6 210 48 25 6.7 3.7 | -2.0 28.4 220 41 21 4.7 2.6
15500 0.1 32.2 210 47 24 6.6 3.6 | -1.4 29.5 220 39 20 5.5 3.0
15000 1.0 33.8 210 46 23 6.6 3.6 | -0.6 30.9 220 37 19 6.4 3.5
14500 1.9 35.4 210 44 23 6.7 3.6 | 0.2 32.4 225 36 18 6.6 3.6
14000 2.8 37.0 210 42 22 6.2 3.4 | 1.2 34.2 225 34 18 8.2 4.5
13500 3.6 38.5 210 40 21 6.5 3.6 | 2.3 36.1 225 33 17 8.1 4.5
13000 4.3 39.7 210 38 19 4.9 2.7 | 3.5 38.3 220 32 16 8.4 4.6
12500 4.9 40.8 205 35 18 5.2 2.9 | 4.7 40.5 220 31 16 8.5 4.7
12000 5.6 42.1 205 32 16 6.4 3.5 | 5.9 42.6 215 30 16 8.1 4.4
11500 6.5 43.7 200 30 15 6.4 3.5 | 7.0 44.6 210 31 16 8.0 4.4
11000 7.4 45.3 190 28 15 8.7 4.8 | 8.2 46.8 205 31 16 8.6 4.7
10500 8.7 47.7 190 28 14 9.0 4.9 | 9.5 49.1 200 33 17 8.4 4.6
10250 9.4 48.9 190 28 14 9.2 5.1 | 10.1 50.2 195 33 17 8.2 4.5
10000 10.1 50.2 190 27 14 9.5 5.2 | 11.3 52.3 195 33 17 8.9 4.9
9750 10.8 51.4 185 27 14 9.6 5.3 | 12.0 53.6 190 34 17 8.7 4.8
9500 11.5 52.7 185 27 14 9.6 5.3 | 12.6 54.7 190 34 17 8.5 4.7
9250 12.2 54.0 185 27 14 9.3 5.1 | 13.2 55.8 190 34 17 8.7 4.8
9000 12.9 55.2 185 27 14 9.1 5.0 | 13.9 57.0 190 34 17 9.0 4.9
8750 13.6 56.5 185 27 14 9.2 5.0 | 14.5 58.1 185 34 18 8.6 4.7
8500 14.9 58.8 185 27 14 10.2 5.6 | 15.2 59.4 185 34 18 9.9 5.4
8250 15.7 60.3 185 26 14 10.6 5.8 | 16.0 60.8 185 33 17 10.4 5.7
8000 16.4 61.5 185 26 13 9.4 5.1 | 16.7 62.1 185 33 17 9.3 5.1
7750 17.2 63.0 185 26 13 9.7 5.3 | 17.4 63.3 185 33 17 9.7 5.3
7500 17.9 64.2 185 26 13 9.2 5.1 | 18.1 64.6 185 32 17 9.2 5.0
7250 18.5 65.3 185 25 13 9.7 5.3 | 18.8 65.8 185 32 17 9.3 5.1
7000 19.3 66.7 185 25 13 10.4 5.7 | 19.5 67.1 180 31 16 9.8 5.4
6750 20.1 68.2 185 24 13 10.3 5.7 | 20.2 68.4 180 30 16 9.7 5.3
6500 20.8 69.4 185 24 12 10.4 5.7 | 21.0 69.8 180 29 15 10.0 5.5
6250 21.7 71.1 185 23 12 14.1 7.7 | 21.7 71.1 180 27 14 9.0 4.9
6000 23.0 73.4 190 21 11 20.4 11.2 | 22.2 72.0 180 23 12 6.6 3.6
5750 24.2 75.6 190 18 9 9.2 5.0 | 22.8 73.0 180 20 10 11.0 6.0
5500 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
________________________________________________________________________________
This product is issued once per day, at approximately 730 AM.
It is not continuously monitored nor updated after its initial
issuance.
The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken at the Albuquerque International
Sunport site in Albuquerque, New Mexico at
North Latitude: 35.03806 deg
West Longitude: 106.62194 deg
Elevation: 5298.6 feet (1615 meters)
and may not be representative of other areas, especially along and east of
the Sandia and Manzano Mountains. Note that some elevations in numerical weather
prediction models differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to
data which appear to be below ground. Erroneous data such as these should
not be used.
The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice. Comments are welcome and should be directed
to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this page.
DEFINITIONS:
CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
area on a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. Larger
values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms. Values around or
greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
convective activity develop.
CINH (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. The more negative
this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection. This
inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)
Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
just becomes saturated. It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
produced by surface heating only.
Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level. It can be considered a
"trigger temperature" for that level.
Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.
Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists. The location and
existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
waves.
K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface. Larger
positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
thunderstorm development. One interpretation of K index values regarding
soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
and is reproduced in the following table:
below -10 no or weak thermals
-10 to 5 dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
5 to 15 good soaring conditions
15 to 20 good soaring conditions with occasional showers
20 to 30 excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
probability of showers and thunderstorms
above 30 more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms
Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
inversions.
Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.
Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
level. The parcel's initial temperature is the forecast maximum
temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
feet of the airmass. Negative values are indicative of instability with
positive values showing stable conditions.
Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals. It is
computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
are applied to these calculations.
Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.
Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals. It
is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
above the ground. After this computation, further empirical adjustments
are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment.
Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds. Broken means that
between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
that little sunlight is reaching the ground.
Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind speed no longer increases with height
PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
sea level). Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.
Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
and the time of overdevelopment.
Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level. Negative values
are indicative of thermal lift.
Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:
Maximum rate of lift Adjective Rating
>= 800 fpm Excellent
>= 400 and < 800 fpm Good
>= 200 and < 400 fpm Fair
< 200 fpm Poor
Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
3. initiation of widespread precipitation
Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
reach the trigger temperature.
Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.
Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
soaring into a single index number. Objective points are assigned to
these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
movements.
042613
Soaring Forecast for Santa Fe NM
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
0725 MDT Wednesday October 15 2025
This forecast is for Wednesday, October 15, 2025:
If the trigger temperature of 70.0 F/21.1 C is reached...then
Thermal Soaring Index....................... Fair
Maximum rate of lift........................ 351 ft/min (1.8 m/s)
Maximum height of thermals.................. 11041 ft MSL (4585 ft AGL)
Forecast maximum temperature................... 72.0 F/22.7 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 1245 MDT
Time of overdevelopment........................ None
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... None
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 9724 ft MSL (3268 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Thursday 10/16..... Excellent
Remarks...
Sunrise/Sunset.................... 07:11:23 / 18:28:40 MDT
Total possible sunshine........... 11 hr 17 min 17 sec (677 min 17 sec)
Altitude of sun at 12:50:01 MDT... 45.51 degrees
Upper air data from numerical model forecast valid on 10/15/2025 at 0600 MDT
Freezing level.................. 15271 ft MSL (8815 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 12462 ft MSL (6006 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 11961 ft MSL (5505 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... -2.5
K index......................... +21.8
Height Temperature Wind Wind Spd Lapse Rate ConvectionT Thermal Lift Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft deg C deg F Index fpm m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -68.0 -90.4 215 53 27 3.2 1.8 74.0 165.1 30.6 M M
45000 -61.9 -79.4 220 67 35 6.1 3.3 61.0 141.7 24.5 M M
40000 -52.7 -62.9 215 77 40 6.8 3.8 53.2 127.7 20.9 M M
38000 -48.1 -54.6 215 72 37 6.8 3.7 49.9 121.9 19.3 M M
36000 -44.1 -47.4 215 68 35 6.7 3.7 47.8 118.0 18.3 M M
34000 -39.5 -39.1 215 65 33 7.7 4.2 45.8 114.4 17.3 M M
32000 -34.9 -30.8 215 62 32 7.7 4.2 44.3 111.8 16.6 M M
30000 -30.4 -22.7 210 61 31 7.6 4.2 42.6 108.6 15.6 M M
29000 -28.1 -18.6 210 60 31 7.6 4.2 41.8 107.2 15.2 M M
28000 -25.8 -14.4 210 60 31 7.4 4.0 41.1 106.0 14.8 M M
27000 -23.9 -11.0 210 58 30 6.5 3.5 39.8 103.6 13.9 M M
26000 -22.0 -7.6 210 56 29 6.5 3.5 38.5 101.4 13.1 M M
25000 -19.6 -3.3 210 54 28 6.5 3.6 37.2 98.9 12.1 M M
24000 -17.6 0.3 210 52 27 6.5 3.6 35.9 96.6 11.2 M M
23000 -15.7 3.7 210 50 26 6.6 3.6 34.7 94.5 10.3 M M
22000 -13.7 7.3 210 48 25 6.6 3.6 33.7 92.7 9.5 M M
21000 -11.8 10.8 210 47 24 6.7 3.7 32.5 90.6 8.6 M M
20000 -9.8 14.4 210 45 23 6.7 3.7 31.5 88.7 7.8 M M
19500 -8.8 16.2 210 45 23 6.6 3.6 31.0 87.8 7.4 M M
19000 -7.8 18.0 210 44 23 7.5 4.1 30.6 87.0 7.0 M M
18500 -6.6 20.1 210 44 22 7.5 4.1 30.2 86.3 6.7 M M
18000 -5.5 22.1 210 43 22 7.4 4.1 29.8 85.6 6.4 M M
17500 -4.5 23.9 210 43 22 7.4 4.0 29.4 84.9 6.1 M M
17000 -3.4 25.9 210 42 22 7.5 4.1 29.0 84.2 5.7 M M
16500 -2.4 27.7 210 42 21 6.6 3.6 28.5 83.3 5.3 M M
16000 -1.5 29.3 210 41 21 6.7 3.7 28.0 82.4 4.8 M M
15500 -0.5 31.1 210 40 21 6.7 3.7 27.5 81.5 4.3 M M
15000 0.4 32.7 210 40 20 6.7 3.7 27.0 80.6 3.8 M M
14500 1.3 34.3 210 39 20 6.7 3.7 26.5 79.7 3.3 M M
14000 2.3 36.1 210 39 20 6.7 3.7 26.0 78.8 2.7 M M
13500 3.2 37.8 210 38 20 6.8 3.7 25.5 77.9 2.2 M M
13000 4.2 39.6 210 38 19 7.8 4.3 25.1 77.2 1.8 M M
12500 5.3 41.5 210 37 19 7.9 4.3 24.8 76.7 1.4 M M
12000 6.3 43.3 210 36 19 7.5 4.1 24.5 76.1 1.0 M M
11500 7.3 45.1 205 34 18 8.6 4.7 24.1 75.4 0.6 M M
11000 8.4 47.1 205 33 17 4.9 2.7 23.8 74.8 0.2 M M
10500 9.2 48.6 205 28 14 2.1 1.2 22.6 72.6 -1.2 309 1.6
10250 9.2 48.6 200 26 13 0.4 0.2 21.8 71.3 -1.9 302 1.5
10000 9.3 48.7 195 24 13 2.3 1.2 21.2 70.1 -2.6 292 1.5
9750 9.4 48.9 190 23 12 1.7 0.9 20.6 69.0 -3.2 281 1.4
9500 9.5 49.1 185 22 11 2.3 1.3 20.0 68.0 -3.8 271 1.4
9250 9.7 49.5 180 23 12 2.6 1.4 19.4 67.0 -4.3 257 1.3
9000 9.9 49.8 170 22 11 2.4 1.3 18.9 66.0 -4.9 244 1.2
8750 10.1 50.2 165 21 11 2.4 1.3 18.3 65.0 -5.5 232 1.2
8500 10.3 50.5 160 20 11 2.5 1.4 17.8 64.0 -6.0 219 1.1
8250 10.5 50.9 155 20 10 3.0 1.7 17.2 63.0 -6.6 206 1.0
8000 10.7 51.3 150 20 10 4.1 2.3 16.7 62.1 -7.0 191 1.0
7750 11.0 51.8 140 18 9 4.7 2.6 16.4 61.4 -7.5 173 0.9
7500 11.4 52.5 140 17 9 4.7 2.6 16.0 60.7 -7.9 156 0.8
7250 11.7 53.1 135 15 8 4.7 2.6 15.6 60.1 -8.3 138 0.7
7000 12.1 53.8 130 13 7 4.3 2.4 15.2 59.4 -8.7 121 0.6
6750 12.3 54.1 130 12 6 1.4 0.8 14.7 58.5 -9.2 107 0.5
6500 12.0 53.6 135 7 4 -10.2 -5.6 13.7 56.7 -10.2 107 0.5
* * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *
10/15/2025 at 0900 MDT | 10/15/2025 at 1200 MDT
|
CAPE... +53.3 LI... -1.4 | CAPE... +367.6 LI... -1.1
CINH... -50.5 K Index... +20.0 | CINH... -21.4 K Index... +17.9
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -67.2 -89.0 215 54 28 3.1 1.7 | -67.7 -89.9 215 56 29 3.8 2.1
45000 -61.3 -78.3 215 67 35 5.9 3.3 | -61.2 -78.2 210 70 36 5.7 3.2
40000 -52.4 -62.3 215 75 38 6.9 3.8 | -52.5 -62.5 215 75 38 6.9 3.8
38000 -47.8 -54.0 210 72 37 6.8 3.7 | -47.9 -54.2 215 74 38 6.9 3.8
36000 -43.7 -46.7 210 70 36 6.8 3.7 | -43.8 -46.8 210 74 38 6.8 3.7
34000 -39.5 -39.1 210 69 35 7.0 3.9 | -39.5 -39.1 210 72 37 7.3 4.0
32000 -35.3 -31.5 210 67 35 7.0 3.9 | -35.1 -31.2 210 71 37 7.3 4.0
30000 -31.1 -24.0 210 63 33 7.1 3.9 | -31.1 -24.0 210 67 35 6.7 3.7
29000 -29.0 -20.2 210 61 32 7.1 3.9 | -29.1 -20.4 210 65 34 6.7 3.7
28000 -26.9 -16.4 210 59 30 7.1 3.9 | -27.1 -16.8 210 63 32 6.8 3.7
27000 -24.8 -12.6 210 57 29 7.1 3.9 | -24.9 -12.8 210 61 31 7.2 3.9
26000 -22.7 -8.9 210 55 28 7.1 3.9 | -22.8 -9.0 210 59 30 7.2 3.9
25000 -20.0 -4.0 210 53 27 7.1 3.9 | -20.7 -5.3 210 57 29 7.1 3.9
24000 -17.8 -0.0 210 52 27 7.4 4.1 | -17.9 -0.2 210 56 29 7.5 4.1
23000 -15.6 3.9 205 51 26 7.4 4.1 | -15.7 3.7 210 55 28 7.5 4.1
22000 -13.4 7.9 205 50 26 7.4 4.0 | -13.4 7.9 210 55 28 7.5 4.1
21000 -11.2 11.8 205 50 26 7.3 4.0 | -11.2 11.8 210 54 28 7.4 4.0
20000 -9.1 15.6 205 49 25 7.3 4.0 | -9.1 15.6 210 53 27 7.4 4.1
19500 -8.0 17.6 205 49 25 7.4 4.0 | -8.0 17.6 210 53 27 7.5 4.1
19000 -7.0 19.4 205 49 25 6.6 3.6 | -6.9 19.6 210 53 27 7.1 3.9
18500 -6.0 21.2 205 48 25 6.7 3.7 | -5.9 21.4 210 52 27 7.1 3.9
18000 -5.0 23.0 205 48 25 6.6 3.6 | -4.8 23.4 210 52 27 6.9 3.8
17500 -4.1 24.6 205 48 25 6.3 3.5 | -3.9 25.0 210 51 26 6.4 3.5
17000 -3.2 26.2 205 48 25 6.4 3.5 | -3.0 26.6 210 50 26 6.5 3.6
16500 -2.3 27.9 210 47 24 6.4 3.5 | -2.0 28.4 210 50 26 6.4 3.5
16000 -1.4 29.5 210 47 24 6.5 3.5 | -1.1 30.0 210 49 25 6.4 3.5
15500 -0.4 31.3 210 47 24 6.5 3.6 | -0.2 31.6 210 49 25 6.6 3.6
15000 0.5 32.9 210 46 24 6.5 3.6 | 0.8 33.4 210 48 25 6.8 3.7
14500 1.4 34.5 210 45 23 6.6 3.6 | 1.7 35.1 210 47 24 6.9 3.8
14000 2.3 36.1 210 44 23 6.8 3.7 | 2.7 36.9 210 47 24 7.2 3.9
13500 3.3 37.9 210 43 22 6.9 3.8 | 3.7 38.7 210 46 24 7.2 4.0
13000 4.2 39.6 210 42 22 7.1 3.9 | 4.7 40.5 205 44 23 7.0 3.8
12500 5.1 41.2 210 41 21 7.4 4.1 | 5.6 42.1 205 43 22 7.4 4.1
12000 5.9 42.6 210 39 20 5.3 2.9 | 6.4 43.5 205 40 21 4.4 2.4
11500 6.6 43.9 205 35 18 5.5 3.0 | 6.8 44.2 205 35 18 5.5 3.0
11000 7.7 45.9 205 31 16 5.6 3.1 | 7.5 45.5 200 32 17 3.1 1.7
10500 8.4 47.1 205 28 14 6.3 3.4 | 7.9 46.2 190 26 13 1.0 0.5
10250 8.9 48.0 200 27 14 6.3 3.4 | 7.9 46.2 180 23 12 2.9 1.6
10000 9.3 48.7 200 26 13 5.2 2.9 | 8.3 46.9 180 22 12 6.5 3.6
9750 9.7 49.5 195 24 13 5.9 3.3 | 8.7 47.7 175 22 11 4.8 2.7
9500 10.1 50.2 190 23 12 4.1 2.3 | 9.1 48.4 170 21 11 8.0 4.4
9250 10.3 50.5 185 22 11 3.0 1.7 | 9.8 49.6 170 22 11 9.3 5.1
9000 10.6 51.1 180 21 11 3.8 2.1 | 10.4 50.7 170 21 11 7.5 4.1
8750 10.8 51.4 175 20 10 4.3 2.3 | 10.9 51.6 165 21 11 7.7 4.2
8500 11.1 52.0 170 19 10 1.1 0.6 | 11.5 52.7 165 20 11 8.7 4.8
8250 11.0 51.8 160 18 9 -0.5 -0.3 | 12.2 54.0 160 20 11 9.9 5.4
8000 11.2 52.2 155 18 9 3.9 2.1 | 12.9 55.2 160 20 10 9.3 5.1
7750 11.5 52.7 145 16 8 5.6 3.1 | 13.6 56.5 160 20 10 9.4 5.2
7500 12.0 53.6 140 16 8 6.5 3.6 | 14.3 57.7 160 19 10 9.9 5.4
7250 12.5 54.5 140 15 8 7.4 4.1 | 15.1 59.2 160 19 10 10.5 5.8
7000 13.0 55.4 135 14 7 6.5 3.6 | 15.8 60.4 155 18 9 9.3 5.1
6750 13.5 56.3 135 13 7 8.3 4.6 | 16.6 61.9 155 17 9 13.0 7.2
6500 14.6 58.3 130 10 5 26.1 14.3 | 18.5 65.3 155 15 8 49.1 26.9
10/15/2025 at 1500 MDT | 10/15/2025 at 1800 MDT
|
CAPE... +688.4 LI... -2.8 | CAPE... +446.0 LI... -2.3
CINH... -6.4 K Index... +21.5 | CINH... -17.5 K Index... +19.3
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -68.0 -90.4 215 53 27 3.8 2.1 | -67.1 -88.8 220 51 26 3.5 1.9
45000 -61.1 -78.0 210 68 35 5.9 3.2 | -60.6 -77.1 210 65 33 5.8 3.2
40000 -52.2 -62.0 215 74 38 6.9 3.8 | -51.9 -61.4 215 75 39 6.8 3.7
38000 -48.1 -54.6 210 74 38 6.9 3.8 | -47.8 -54.0 210 76 39 6.7 3.7
36000 -43.9 -47.0 210 75 38 6.9 3.8 | -43.8 -46.8 210 78 40 6.7 3.7
34000 -39.5 -39.1 210 74 38 7.6 4.2 | -39.5 -39.1 210 77 39 7.2 4.0
32000 -34.9 -30.8 210 73 38 7.6 4.2 | -35.2 -31.4 210 75 38 7.2 4.0
30000 -30.2 -22.4 215 71 37 6.7 3.7 | -31.3 -24.3 215 71 36 6.2 3.4
29000 -28.2 -18.8 215 70 36 6.7 3.7 | -29.0 -20.2 215 68 35 6.2 3.4
28000 -26.2 -15.2 215 69 36 6.6 3.6 | -27.1 -16.8 215 65 34 6.3 3.5
27000 -24.3 -11.7 215 68 35 6.4 3.5 | -25.1 -13.2 215 64 33 6.8 3.7
26000 -22.4 -8.3 215 66 34 6.4 3.5 | -23.1 -9.6 215 62 32 6.8 3.7
25000 -20.5 -4.9 215 64 33 6.3 3.5 | -21.0 -5.8 215 61 31 6.8 3.7
24000 -18.4 -1.1 215 62 32 7.2 4.0 | -18.9 -2.0 215 59 31 7.1 3.9
23000 -16.2 2.8 215 61 31 7.2 4.0 | -16.8 1.8 215 58 30 7.1 3.9
22000 -14.0 6.8 215 60 31 7.3 4.0 | -14.6 5.7 215 56 29 7.2 3.9
21000 -11.9 10.6 215 58 30 7.0 3.8 | -12.5 9.5 215 55 28 7.0 3.9
20000 -9.8 14.4 215 57 29 7.0 3.8 | -10.4 13.3 215 53 27 7.0 3.9
19500 -8.8 16.2 215 56 29 7.0 3.8 | -9.3 15.3 215 52 27 7.0 3.9
19000 -7.8 18.0 215 56 29 6.7 3.7 | -8.3 17.1 215 51 26 6.9 3.8
18500 -6.8 19.8 215 55 28 6.6 3.6 | -7.3 18.9 215 50 26 6.8 3.7
18000 -5.9 21.4 215 54 28 6.7 3.7 | -6.3 20.7 210 48 25 6.9 3.8
17500 -4.9 23.2 215 53 27 6.4 3.5 | -5.4 22.3 215 47 24 5.9 3.2
17000 -4.0 24.8 210 52 27 6.6 3.6 | -4.5 23.9 215 45 23 6.1 3.4
16500 -3.1 26.4 210 51 26 5.8 3.2 | -3.7 25.3 215 43 22 6.5 3.6
16000 -2.4 27.7 210 48 25 5.7 3.1 | -2.7 27.1 215 40 21 6.8 3.7
15500 -1.6 29.1 210 46 24 5.9 3.2 | -1.8 28.8 215 38 20 7.2 4.0
15000 -0.8 30.6 205 43 22 6.2 3.4 | -0.7 30.7 220 37 19 8.1 4.5
14500 -0.1 31.8 205 40 20 6.3 3.5 | 0.4 32.7 220 35 18 8.2 4.5
14000 0.9 33.6 200 37 19 7.7 4.2 | 1.6 34.9 220 34 17 8.4 4.6
13500 1.9 35.4 200 35 18 7.6 4.2 | 2.7 36.9 220 33 17 8.4 4.6
13000 3.0 37.4 195 34 17 8.5 4.7 | 3.9 39.0 215 32 16 7.8 4.3
12500 4.2 39.6 195 33 17 8.5 4.7 | 5.0 41.0 210 31 16 7.8 4.3
12000 6.2 43.2 195 32 16 9.5 5.2 | 6.6 43.9 205 31 16 7.7 4.2
11500 7.5 45.5 195 31 16 8.0 4.4 | 7.7 45.9 200 31 16 7.9 4.4
11000 8.8 47.8 190 31 16 9.5 5.2 | 8.9 48.0 195 30 16 8.6 4.7
10500 10.2 50.4 190 30 16 8.2 4.5 | 10.1 50.2 190 30 16 8.7 4.8
10250 10.7 51.3 190 29 15 7.6 4.2 | 10.8 51.4 190 31 16 9.2 5.0
10000 11.3 52.3 185 28 15 9.0 4.9 | 11.5 52.7 190 30 16 9.5 5.2
9750 11.9 53.4 185 28 14 8.2 4.5 | 12.2 54.0 190 30 16 9.3 5.1
9500 12.6 54.7 185 27 14 10.0 5.5 | 12.9 55.2 185 30 16 9.9 5.4
9250 13.4 56.1 185 28 14 9.7 5.3 | 13.6 56.5 190 30 15 9.9 5.4
9000 14.0 57.2 180 26 14 8.0 4.4 | 14.3 57.7 185 30 15 9.4 5.2
8750 14.6 58.3 180 25 13 8.3 4.5 | 15.0 59.0 185 29 15 9.5 5.2
8500 15.2 59.4 180 25 13 9.0 5.0 | 15.7 60.3 185 29 15 9.8 5.4
8250 15.9 60.6 175 24 13 9.9 5.4 | 16.5 61.7 185 29 15 9.7 5.3
8000 16.6 61.9 175 24 12 9.0 4.9 | 17.1 62.8 185 28 14 8.8 4.8
7750 17.2 63.0 175 22 12 8.4 4.6 | 17.8 64.0 185 26 14 8.4 4.6
7500 17.9 64.2 170 21 11 9.3 5.1 | 18.4 65.1 185 25 13 8.9 4.9
7250 18.6 65.5 170 21 11 10.5 5.8 | 19.1 66.4 180 24 12 9.3 5.1
7000 19.3 66.7 170 20 10 8.9 4.9 | 19.7 67.5 180 23 12 8.1 4.4
6750 20.0 68.0 170 18 9 10.1 5.6 | 20.1 68.2 180 20 10 3.4 1.9
6500 21.3 70.3 165 15 8 32.7 17.9 | 19.9 67.8 175 15 8 -8.7 -4.8
________________________________________________________________________________
This product is issued once per day, at approximately 730 AM local
time. It is not continuously monitored nor updated after its initial
issuance.
The information contained herein is based on numerical weather prediction
model data for the Santa Fe County Municipal Airport site in Santa Fe, New Mexico at
North Latitude: 35.61097 deg
West Longitude: 106.61097 deg
Elevation: 6279.5 feet (1936.0 meters)
and may not be representative of other areas along and east of the Sandia
and Manzano Mountains. Note that some elevations in numerical weather
prediction models differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to
data which appear to be below ground. Erroneous data such as these should
not be used.
The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice. Comments are welcome and should be directed
to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this page.
DEFINITIONS:
CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
area on a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. Larger
values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms. Values around or
greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
convective activity develop.
CINH (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. The more negative
this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection. This
inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)
Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
just becomes saturated. It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
produced by surface heating only.
Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level. It can be considered a
"trigger temperature" for that level.
Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.
Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists. The location and
existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
waves.
K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface. Larger
positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
thunderstorm development. One interpretation of K index values regarding
soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
and is reproduced in the following table:
below -10 no or weak thermals
-10 to 5 dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
5 to 15 good soaring conditions
15 to 20 good soaring conditions with occasional showers
20 to 30 excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
probability of showers and thunderstorms
above 30 more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms
Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
inversions.
Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.
Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
level. The parcel's initial temperature is the forecast maximum
temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
feet of the airmass. Negative values are indicative of instability with
positive values showing stable conditions.
Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals. It is
computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
are applied to these calculations.
Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.
Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals. It
is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
above the ground. After this computation, further empirical adjustments
are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment.
Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds. Broken means that
between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
that little sunlight is reaching the ground.
Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind speed no longer increases with height
PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
sea level). Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.
Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
and the time of overdevelopment.
Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level. Negative values
are indicative of thermal lift.
Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:
Maximum rate of lift Adjective Rating
>= 800 fpm Excellent
>= 400 and < 800 fpm Good
>= 200 and < 400 fpm Fair
< 200 fpm Poor
Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
3. initiation of widespread precipitation
Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
reach the trigger temperature.
Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.
Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
soaring into a single index number. Objective points are assigned to
these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
movements.
042613
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