The diamonds in the chart above provide the index scores for the current month; they are useful in assessing relative index scores among different products and services.  The bars provide category level index score changes compared to the previous month, which can be used to interpret how consumer perceptions and behaviors changed month over month.

The time series charts for each index below show the changes over time. We recommend not only looking at relative index scores but also changes over time - either month over month or current period relative to a designated time period in the past, to capture how consumers are noticing price and supply changes as well as altering their purchasing behavior.

Morning Consult collects data on 20 product and service categories within this survey, with demographic breakouts regularly reported across 16 different groups. While this tracker provides visuals on top-line category or index levels, subscribers to MC Pro+ are encouraged  to download interactive Excel dashboards to analyze changes over time and compare indexes for different category and demographic groups.

Two sets of data download dashboard files allow users to compare each category's index score among four demographic groups over time or compare two categories' index scores for the selected demographic over time.

Morning Consult’s Price Surprise Index monitors how often consumers encounter higher-than-expected prices when purchasing goods and services, closely mirroring top-line annual inflation as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Consequently, a month-over-month increase or decrease in the index reflects consumers' perception of a corresponding change in prices. Higher index scores mean more adults are noticing price increases, lower scores mean more observed prices are at or below expected levels.

• Price Surprise: Net share of consumers reporting higher than expected pricing.
• Calculation: Purchased a product or a service for a higher-than-expected price minus purchased for a price close to or below expectations. Indexed at September 2024 (=0).

Morning Consult's Price Sensitivity Index, indicative of demand changes in response to inflation, measures the extent to which consumers avoid purchases due to prices exceeding their expectations. A higher index figure for a product or service category means a larger share of consumers are "price sensitive," or walking away from purchases with higher-than-expected prices, signifying reduced demand for that product or service. Lower scores mean more are willing to pay higher-than-expected prices.

• Price Sensitivity: Willingness to forgo a purchase when faced with higher-than-expected pricing.
• Calculation: Did not purchase because price was too high minus (purchased for higher-than-expected price / 1- purchased for a price close to or below expectations). Indexed at September 2024 (=0).

Morning Consult's Trading Down Index measures the "trading down" behaviors of U.S. consumers. A neutral value at the product or service category level indicates equal proportions of adults opted for a lower-priced substitute as those who chose not to purchase. Therefore, a higher trading down index score for a product or service suggests that consumers are more inclined to trade down as consumers feel pressure to cut costs.

• Trading Down: Willingness to trade down to a cheaper substitute.
• Calculation: Purchased lower priced alternative minus did not purchase. Indexed at September 2024 (=0).

The Unavailability Index measures the difference between the share of adults who said they were unable to purchase a good or service because it was unavailable and the share who said they purchased the good or service at a price at/below expectations. Higher index scores means purchases were prevented by stock-outs, lower index scores mean products and services were more readily available. The Unavailability Index is distinct from the Purchasing Difficulty Index (below) because it takes into account price, not just inventory availability.

• Unavailability: Inability to purchase a product or service.
• Calculation: Did not purchase because product/service was unavailable minus purchased it at/below the expected price. Indexed at September 2024 (=0).

For each good or service, the index score Purchasing Difficulty Index is calculated by subtracting the share who said they shopped for a given item and did not have trouble finding it from the share who said they looked for this item and did have trouble finding it. Higher index scores mean consumers faced search effort frictions, including shortages, when pursuing a given item. Lower scores indicate less search effort was required to obtain the item.

• Purchasing Difficulty: The extent to which buyers experience difficulty obtaining a product or service.
• Calculation: Reported difficulty finding certain items minus did not report difficulty finding certain items. Indexed at September 2024 (=0).

The Delivery Delays Index encompasses only goods ordered online. The index is calculated by subtracting the share of adults who ordered a product online and said it arrived faster than the previous month from the share of those who ordered the same product and said it arrived more slowly than in the previous month. Higher scores means goods ordered online are taking longer to arrive, lower scores mean orders are arriving more quickly.

• Delivery Delays: When buying a product, the relative timing of delivery compared to the previous month.
• Calculation: Deliveries were slower than last month minus deliveries were faster than last month. Indexed at September 2024 (=0).

Each month the economic analysis team produces a memo examining the recent trends, highlighting the notable changes among select demographics and categories as well as providing an outlook on prices, consumer demand, and supply.

Access the latest analysis on our website, subscribe to Economy and Finance content alerts  for update notifications to this tracker and our bi-weekly newsletter Consumer Says for additional context for our analysis.