No major changes in forecast reasoning have occurred since the initial release of the March - May seasonal drought outlook. Minor adjustments have been made to areas of removal/improvement/persistence/development based on the short term forecasts and updated monthly outlook that may result in drought expansion and reduction, such as in parts of the Midwest, South, Southeast and the Hawaii Islands.

Updated Seasonal Assessment - No major changes in forecast reasoning have occurred since the initial release of the March - May seasonal drought outlook. Minor adjustments have been made to areas of removal/improvement/persistence/development based on the short term forecasts and updated monthly outlook that may result in drought expansion and reduction, such as in parts of the Midwest, South, Southeast and the Hawaii Islands.

Latest Seasonal Assessment - Coverage of drought conditions expanded rapidly across the contiguous United States during the last month despite the fact that winter months are characterized by low evapotranspirative demand. The largest expansion of drought occurred across the southern half of California and the Four Corners states, where subnormal precipitation combined with generally above-average temperatures. Drought also expanded across the Pacific Northwest and the Southeast. In contrast, widespread heavy precipitation fell across northern California and climatologically drier regions of Oregon, the Intermountain West, and the northern High Plains, sparking some drought reductions. An extreme precipitation event brought widespread flooding to Kentucky and portions of the central Appalachians, while also sparking some drought relief across the higher elevations of the mid-Atlantic. Across the remainder of the mid-Atlantic and Northeast, an unusually long term drought continues.



The seasonal drought outlook for March - May 2025 is based on an anticipated continuation of La Ni�a conditions and official temperature and precipitation forecast guidance at multiple time scales. A wetter pattern is favored to develop across the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, which should be sufficient to alleviate drought conditions that have recently developed. A wetter pattern favored at the seasonal time scale also favors some drought reductions across the Great Lakes region, but persistence is more likely across Minnesota and the northern Plains due to meager snow coverage that may limit opportunities for Spring recharge. Along the southern tier, continued drought expansion is favored for the Four Corners region, the south-central High Plains, and the western half of Texas due to a strong tilt towards below average precipitation in the guidance and dry incipient conditions. Continued drought expansion across the Florida peninsula is also possible, but improved conditions and short term rainfall may help alleviate drought conditions across the remainder of the Southeast. Across the Northeast, climatology would typically favor Spring recharge; however, low streamflows and groundwater availability would require substantial and sustained precipitation to fully recover, so while storm systems can bring some relief to the region, any dry periods as evapotranspiration demands increase throughout the Spring could result in a rapid return of drought related impacts.



Low mountain snow cover across the southern tier of Alaska may result in some slow drought development during the Spring months. Drought conditions have eased considerably across Hawaii, and forecasts favoring enhanced precipitation for the islands makes drought removal likely. No drought is currently in place or forecast to develop across Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands.



Forecaster: Adam Allgood



Next Seasonal Drought Outlook issued: March 20, 2025 at 8:30 AM EDT

Seasonal Drought Outlook Discussion