We present a video lecture series on severe thunderstorm forecasting,
a collaboration between the NOAA Storm Prediction Center, The University of Oklahoma,
the NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory, and the NOAA Warning Decision Training Division.
This is based on a three-semester-hour graduate-level course offered at The University of Oklahoma
about applications of meteorological theory to the forecasting of severe thunderstorms
(Meteorology 5403/4403: Applications of Meteorological Theory to Severe-Thunderstorm Forecasting).
This course is led by SPC forecasters Ariel Cohen and Richard Thompson, and University of Oklahoma
faculty member Steven Cavallo.
During each spring semester from 2015 to 2017, this course has provided an opportunity to bridge
the academic and operational disciplines of meteorology, allowing students to learn from experienced
forecasters who have performed research on a variety of topics.
During spring 2017, many lectures comprising Meteorology 5403/4403 and other related lectures
relevant to severe thunderstorm forecasting were recorded.
YouTube links to these recordings and accompanying descriptions are provided below as an educational resource.
Credit for recording and editing these videos goes to Ben Holcomb and Shawn Riley of The
University of Oklahoma.
OU student Daniel Cornish reviewed and edited most closed captions, and substantial appreciation is
extended to OU graduate student Andrew Moore who served as a teaching assistant for Meteorology
5403/4403 during spring semester 2017. Keli Pirtle, NOAA Communications public affairs specialist,
and James Murnan, NOAA Weather Partners audio/visual production specialist, both contributed
assistance in the preparation and outreach for this video series.
All videos are closed captioned.
Updated: 6 July 2017
Quick Links to Sections:
Severe Thunderstorm Ingredients
Quasi-Geostrophic Theory
Subjective Chart Analysis and Forecasting Philosophy
Homework Review
Mesoscale Convective System Motion
Dual-Pol Radar Application
Perturbation Pressure
Operational Severe Weather Watch/Warning System
Decision Making in Weather Forecasting
Tropical Cyclone (TC) Tornadoes
Supercells and Tornadoes
Vertical Circulations
Convection-Allowing Models (CAMs) and Ensembles
Statistical Severe Convective Risk Assessment Model (SSCRAM)
Southeast U.S. Cool Season Severe Weather/Tornadoes and Other Low-buoyancy Environments
Seasonal Severe Thunderstorm and Tornado Forecasting
Forecasting Fire Weather
Severe Thunderstorm Ingredients (Top)
Video Name: Severe Thunderstorm Ingredients
Lecturer: Ariel Cohen
Description: Cohen discusses the main ingredients for organized severe thunderstorms, including moisture, rising air, instability, and vertical wind shear.
YouTube Link: https://youtu.be/MStOxD_TQ_Y
Video Name: Lapse Rate Tendency Equation
Lecturer: Ariel Cohen
Description: Cohen presents the derivation of the lapse rate tendency equation using the principle of conservation of mass, and then discusses the physical meaning of each term in the lapse rate tendency equation.
YouTube Link: https://youtu.be/2iNtFJ3neIQ
Video Name: Conservation of Mass
Lecturer: Ariel Cohen
Description: Cohen shows the mathematical relationship between changes in pressure and divergence using the conservation of mass.
YouTube Link: https://youtu.be/AgPLFR1D6KY
Video Name: Moisture and the Return Flow Cycle
Lecturer: Rich Thompson
Description: Thompson discusses air mass modification and the return flow cycle and how it applies to forecasting severe thunderstorms.
YouTube Link: https://youtu.be/d9wKfyb7cbo
Video Name: Effects of Inland Mixing on Moisture
Lecturer: Rich Thompson
Description: Thompson discusses the effects underlying land conditions have on inland moisture return.
YouTube Link: https://youtu.be/FDfD60jl9fQ
Video Name: Effects of Evapotranspiration
Lecturer: Rich Thompson
Description: Thompson discusses the effects of evapotranspiration on low-level moisture.
YouTube Link: https://youtu.be/FJGDnJ1o_3Y
Video Name: Source and Evolution of Lapse Rates
Lecturer: Rich Thompson
Description: Thompson discusses the source regions and evolution of lapse rates that result in favorable instability for severe thunderstorm development.
YouTube Link: https://youtu.be/6Tt2ro-Ed0A
Video Name: Synoptic Influences on Vertical Wind Shear
Lecturer: Rich Thompson
Description: Thompson discusses how synoptic scale processes influence favorable vertical wind shear for organized severe thunderstorms.
YouTube Link: https://youtu.be/ySHuZxrYP4s
Video Name: Jet Streaks and Vertical Wind Shear
Lecturer: Rich Thompson
Description: Thompson focuses on a conceptual model of jet streaks and how the movement of air through a jet streak influences the deep-layer wind profile.
YouTube Link: https://youtu.be/Abf1Q2VLUTs
Video Name: Lee Cyclogenesis and Vertical Wind Shear
Lecturer: Rich Thompson
Description: Thompson discusses the necessary conditions for lee cyclogenesis and its implications on the deep-layer wind profile, specifically on its intensification of the low-level jet.
YouTube Link: https://youtu.be/CZH9_awxUWY
Video Name: Synoptic Lift Sources
Lecturer: Rich Thompson
Description: Thompson discusses sources of synoptic scale lift, how it affects the near-storm environment, and its relation to convective initiation.
YouTube Link: https://youtu.be/rhTIorvcjXw
Video Name: Mesoscale Lift and the Dryline
Lecturer: Rich Thompson
Description: Thompson discusses mesoscale lift, specifically the vertical circulation of the dryline, and how a conceptual model can be used to estimate the likelihood of thunderstorm development.
YouTube Link: https://youtu.be/4LKx_YOTIlc
Video Name: Synoptic Review
Lecturer: Rich Thompson
Description: Thompson presents a brief overview of the quasi-geostrophic height tendency and QG Omega equations, frontogenesis, and barotropic and baroclinic waves.
YouTube Link: https://youtu.be/oQ7K113wUJ4
Video Name: Skew-T Diagram Basics
Lecturer: Rich Thompson
Description: Thompson discusses the basics of the skew-T log-p diagram and shows real life cases of how large-scale ascent affects the thermodynamic and kinematic profile.
YouTube Link: https://youtu.be/mYJw2QovUKQ
Video Name: Hodograph Plots
Lecturer: Rich Thompson
Description: Thompson introduces the hodograph and storm-relative helicity and explains how they can be used to analyze the environmental wind profile in order to forecast different severe weather threats.
YouTube Link: https://youtu.be/cQAONp1_b2s
Video Name: Observational Data Quality
Lecturer: Rich Thompson
Description: Thompson discusses how to identify bad observational data using real-world examples.
YouTube Link: https://youtu.be/5yMbp54bPFY
Quasi-Geostrophic Theory (Top)
Video Name: Atmospheric Vertical Motion Responses to Forcing
Lecturer: Ariel Cohen
Description: Cohen discusses the atmospheric vertical motion response to divergence and some physical implications for the real atmosphere.
YouTube Link: https://youtu.be/hfJ_1mQQv4Q
Video Name: Quasi-Geostrophic Height Tendency Equation: Intro
Lecturer: Ariel Cohen
Description: Cohen introduces the quasi-geostrophic vorticity equation and then derives the quasi-geostrophic height tendency equation.
YouTube Link: https://youtu.be/iIZIfe_c9DI
Video Name: Quasi-Geostrophic Omega Equation: Intro
Lecturer: Ariel Cohen
Description: Cohen derives the quasi-geostrophic omega equation and discusses the physical meaning of each of its terms.
YouTube Link: https://youtu.be/oX9LCdliNTg
Video Name: Quasi-Geostrophic Omega Equation: Applications
Lecturer: Ariel Cohen
Description: Cohen discusses the physical implications of the quasi-geostrophic omega equation and applies them to various conceptual models.
YouTube Link: https://youtu.be/bYM82OJk4xc
Video Name: Quasi-Geostrophic Height Tendency Equation: Applications
Lecturer: Ariel Cohen
Description: Cohen discuss the physical implications of the quasi-geostrophic height tendency equation and applies them to various conceptual models.
YouTube Link: https://youtu.be/421VenxbJPQ
Video Name: Conservation of Potential Vorticity
Lecturer: Ariel Cohen
Description: Cohen discusses the conservation of potential vorticity and its implications on lee troughing.
YouTube Link: https://youtu.be/3yWwrhldV5Y
Subjective Chart Analysis and Forecasting Philosophy (Top)
Video Name: Forecasting Philosophy
Lecturer: Steven Weiss
Description: Weiss discusses many different aspects of forecasting philosophy, including the roles of both humans and computers in the forecasting process and the continued importance of subjective hand analysis.
YouTube Link: https://youtu.be/BpoaCQUfFbs
Video Name: Operational Observing Systems and Upper-Air Analysis
Lecturer: Steven Weiss
Description: In this video, Weiss discusses the observing systems that operational forecasters use today, as well as the philosophy of upper-air analysis.
YouTube Link: https://youtu.be/ArW8pZ2N4fQ
Video Name: Model Analysis Errors and Upper-Air Analysis Examples
Lecturer: Steven Weiss
Description: Weiss presents examples of model analysis errors, as well as manual upper-air analyses for selected severe weather events.
YouTube Link: https://youtu.be/xThfLtl6ckg
Video Name: Tornado Forecasting History and Surface Analysis
Lecturer: Steven Weiss
Description: Weiss discusses the history of tornado forecasting and the role of surface analysis in the advancement of tornado forecasting.
YouTube Link: https://youtu.be/uPH78cMmyFk
Video Name: Surface Mesoanalysis and Boundary Identification
Lecturer: Steven Weiss
Description: In this video, Weiss discusses how surface mesoanalysis is done, its role in severe weather forecasting, and how to use various data sources to help identify surface boundaries.
YouTube Link: https://youtu.be/LOWrD2b6YgA
Video Name: Subjective Analysis Example Case
Lecturer: Steven Weiss
Description: Weiss presents subjective surface and upper-air analysis for an example severe weather event.
YouTube Link: https://youtu.be/X2TL5TI1yUw
Video Name: Forecast Philosophy and Decision Making
Lecturer: Steven Weiss
Description: Weiss discusses forecast philosophy in detail and how it impacts forecast decision making.
YouTube Link: https://youtu.be/-0wF7M_DSCI
Homework Review (Top)
Video Name: Homework Review
Lecturer: Andrew Moore
Description: Moore discusses the solutions to the first homework problem set, which included questions involving positively and negatively tilted troughs, surface cyclogenesis, mesoscale and synoptic scale lift related to convective initiation, and identifying areas of low-level ascent.
YouTube Link: https://youtu.be/o2mKwERp4x8
Mesoscale Convective System Motion (Top)
Video Name: Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) Motion
Lecturer: Andrew Moore
Description: Moore discusses the basic characteristics of an MCS, how to forecast MCS motion, and the factors that influence MCS motion.
YouTube Link: https://youtu.be/kcrZDS_hSDw
Dual-Pol Radar Applications (Top)
Video Name: Dual-Pol Radar: Overview
Lecturer: Joey Picca
Description: Picca provides an overview of the dual-polarization variables and their operational uses, creating a foundation for this radar training series.
YouTube Link: https://youtu.be/rCXlg3sYQhQ
Video Name: Dual-Pol Radar: ZDR Columns/Updraft Detection
Lecturer: Joey Picca
Description: This dual-pol signature gives you the ability to track updrafts and monitor their evolution with more confidence.
YouTube Link: https://youtu.be/A1WR2LkYe70
Video Name: Dual-Pol Radar: Size Sorting/Updraft Detection
Lecturer: Joey Picca
Description: What is the hydrometeor size sorting signature and how can you use it to predict near-term thunderstorm trends? Check it out!
YouTube Link: https://youtu.be/oD1bfv7VO_k
Video Name: Dual-Pol Radar: ZDR Arcs/Detection of Increasing Low-Level Rotation Potential
Lecturer: Joey Picca
Description: This radar signature uses the unique footprint of raindrop size sorting to reveal an increasing potential for low- and mid-level rotation in thunderstorms.
YouTube Link: https://youtu.be/Mdee9iuJOVE
Video Name: Dual-Pol Radar: Large Hail Signature
Lecturer: Joey Picca
Description: Use dual-pol data to gain even more confidence regarding the location of the largest hail within thunderstorms.
YouTube Link: https://youtu.be/jF8lZMvPcFg
Video Name: Dual-Pol Radar: Tornadic Debris Signature (TDS)
Lecturer: Joey Picca
Description: This powerful dual-polarization signature gives us the ability to confirm a recent or ongoing tornado. However, TDS diagnosis must be done with great caution, and this video provides some tips to do so.
YouTube Link: https://youtu.be/RKUP46UE-1I
Video Name: Dual-Pol Radar: Side Lobe Contamination
Lecturer: Joey Picca
Description: Side lobe contamination doesn’t sound very interesting, but it can wreak havoc with radar interrogation of potentially tornadic storms. Here’s a description of side lobe contamination and some tips on how to spot it.
YouTube Link: https://youtu.be/CxHypXmICJM
Video Name: Dual-Pol Radar: Three-Body Scatter Spike (Hail Spike) Signature
Lecturer: Joey Picca
Description: The hail spike signature is fairly common in severe thunderstorms. However, did you know it can also interfere with velocity signatures, occasionally producing false indications of rotation? Use dual-pol data to identify this problem and improve your radar interpretation skills!
YouTube Link: https://youtu.be/w7HWGtETDQg
Video Name: Dual-Pol Radar: Melting Layer Identification
Lecturer: Joey Picca
Description: Heavy precipitation or high reflectivity due to melting snowflakes? Rain about to switch to snow? Here’s how dual-pol data can help your analysis.
YouTube Link: https://youtu.be/qtSenCoVClI
Video Name: Dual-Pol Radar: Transition Zones / Re-Freezing (Sleet) Signatures
Lecturer: Joey Picca
Description: Snow? Sleet? Freezing Rain? Don’t fear the wintry mix! Use dual-pol data to decipher an array of precipitation types.
YouTube Link: https://youtu.be/sq5hNNps2Ao
Video Name: Dual-Pol Radar: Heavy Snow Identification
Lecturer: Joey Picca
Description: When heavy snow threatens your area, dual-pol data can highlight snow crystal processes (such as crystal growth and aggregation) that can enhance snowfall rates.
YouTube Link: https://youtu.be/MPGH19MlzHQ
Video Name: Dual-Pol Radar: Depolarization / Increasing Lightning Potential
Lecturer: Joey Picca
Description: Did you know dual-pol data can identify strengthening in-cloud electrification and a growing potential for lightning in winter storms? Here’s how!
YouTube Link: https://youtu.be/qe1oUZu0Z4o
Video Name: Dual-Pol Radar: Light Winter Precipitation
Lecturer: Joey Picca
Description: Light winter precipitation may seem harmless, but it can still have big impacts. Use subtle dual-pol details to target the areas of most concern.
YouTube Link: https://youtu.be/Aiowi18_Ono
Perturbation Pressure (Top)
Video Name: Perturbation Pressure Part 1: Introduction
Lecturer: Ariel Cohen
Description: Cohen introduces the individual components of the perturbation pressure equation and how it can be obtained from the Boussinesq equations of motion.
YouTube Link: https://youtu.be/KXhv679HCbQ
Video Name: Perturbation Pressure Part 2: The Hydrodynamic Non-Linear Shear Term
Lecturer: Ariel Cohen
Description: Cohen presents the physical implications of the hydrodynamic non-linear shear term on the flanking sides of an initial updraft.
YouTube Link: https://youtu.be/mNTyAiPS3zc
Video Name: Perturbation Pressure Part 3: Vorticity and Storm Relative Helicity
Lecturer: Ariel Cohen
Description: Cohen discusses the implications of crosswise and streamwise vorticity on the development of rotating updrafts. He also introduces the equation to find storm relative helicity.
YouTube Link: https://youtu.be/3RJnTbZ3CSI
Video Name: Perturbation Pressure Part 4: Crosswise and Streamwise Vorticity
Lecturer: Ariel Cohen
Description: Cohen continues to discuss why streamwise vorticity is more favorable for tornadogenesis by analyzing the change in horizontal vorticity over time.
YouTube Link: https://youtu.be/TgJBo7H767s
Video Name: Perturbation Pressure Part 5: Hydrodynamic Non-Linear Fluid Extension Term
Lecturer: Ariel Cohen
Description: Cohen discusses the physical implications of the hydrodynamic non-linear fluid extension term on the flanking sides of an initial updraft.
YouTube Link: https://youtu.be/UfpRZ6EWAxY
Video Name: Perturbation Pressure Part 6: Summary of Non-Linear Terms
Lecturer: Ariel Cohen
Description: Cohen summarizes the physical implications of the hydrodynamic non-linear shear and fluid extension terms on the flanking sides of an initial updraft.
YouTube Link: https://youtu.be/VPM1RdNqicY
Video Name: Perturbation Pressure Part 7: Linear Term and a Straight Hodograph
Lecturer: Ariel Cohen
Description: Cohen discusses the hydrodynamic linear term of the perturbation pressure equation and its implication on cell propagation in a straight hodograph case.
YouTube Link: https://youtu.be/DaaV9Dlud_k
Video Name: Perturbation Pressure Part 8: Linear Term and a Curved Hodograph
Lecturer: Ariel Cohen
Description: Cohen discusses the physical implications of the hydrodynamic linear term in the case of a curved hodograph.
YouTube Link: https://youtu.be/bPs-sEj7uz0
Video Name: Perturbation Pressure Part 9: Linear Term and a Second Curved Hodograph
Lecturer: Ariel Cohen
Description: Cohen presents another example of a curved hodograph to show the physical implications of the hydrodynamic linear term.
YouTube Link: https://youtu.be/fpOQ_J8OsJg
Video Name: Perturbation Pressure Part 10: Summary of Perturbation Pressure and Bunkers Storm Motion
Lecturer: Ariel Cohen
Description: Cohen reviews the terms of the perturbation pressure equation and their effects on the flanking sides of an initial updraft. Bunkers supercell storm motion is also introduced in this video.
YouTube Link: https://youtu.be/by8CNokCz38
Operational Severe Weather Watch/Warning System (Top)
Video Name: Operational Severe Weather Watch/Warning System
Lecturer: Alan Gerard
Description: Gerard discusses the past, present, and future of the operational severe weather watch/warning system, including FACETs, Warn-on-Forecast, and PHI.
YouTube Link: https://youtu.be/TUE16KhOgIY
Video Name: Forecaster Personality Types
Lecturer: Steve Piltz
Description: In this video, Piltz discusses the importance of the human element of the severe weather warning process and uses the Myers-Briggs Type Indicator to highlight how different personalities play a role in forecast decision making.
YouTube Link: https://youtu.be/st5yFS9NR3c
Video Name: Near Storm Environment and Radar Side Lobe Contamination
Lecturer: Steve Piltz
Description: Piltz discusses how the near storm environment and radar side lobe contamination influence warning operations.
YouTube Link: https://youtu.be/obQBz2mGgbU
Video Name: Warning Decision Making
Lecturer: Steve Piltz
Description: Piltz discusses warning decisions regarding various convective modes and severe weather threats, including supercells, QLCS tornadoes, hail, downbursts, and landspout tornadoes.
YouTube Link: https://youtu.be/ZUyeKkGLDrg
Decision Making in Weather Forecasting (Top)
Video Name: Forecast Decision Making
Lecturer: Bill Bunting
Description: Bunting discusses lessons in decision making meteorologists have learned from other disciplines and how fatigue plays a role in the operational forecast environment.
YouTube Link: https://youtu.be/ayadlJlQM9k
Video Name: Operational Forecast Exercise
Lecturer: Bill Bunting
Description: Bunting presents an operational forecasting exercise from a past severe weather event and walks through the decisions that have to be made in a forecast office during similar days.
YouTube Link: https://youtu.be/EJCaAwiY_M4
Tropical Cyclone (TC) Tornadoes (Top)
Video Name: Tropical Cyclone Tornadoes: Climatology and Forecasting Concepts
Lecturer: Roger Edwards
Description: Edwards discusses different aspects of the climatology of tropical cyclone tornadoes and an ingredients-based approach to forecasting them.
YouTube Link: https://youtu.be/KhfQTdPWrn4
Video Name: Tropical Cyclone Tornadoes: Dual-Pol Radar Applications and Reversible CAPE
Lecturer: Roger Edwards
Description: Edwards discusses the applications of dual-polarization radar and reversible CAPE to forecasting tropical cyclone tornadoes.
YouTube Link: https://youtu.be/_AhqdR_UNoM
Supercells and Tornadoes (Top)
Video Name: Supercell Characteristics
Lecturer: Rich Thompson
Description: In this instructional video Thompson describes the ingredients and physical processes for supercell formation including buoyancy, shear, and vorticity.
YouTube Link: https://youtu.be/4smGcIOfHjQ
Video Name: Non-Mesocyclonic Tornadoes
Lecturer: Rich Thompson
Description: In this instructional video Thompson discusses the physical processes for non-mesocyclonic tornadoes.
YouTube Link: https://youtu.be/7-0p3SymW2k
Video Name: Mesocyclonic Tornadoes
Lecturer: Rich Thompson
Description: In this NWS instructional video Thompson presents the physical processes for mesocyclonic (supercell) tornadoes.
YouTube Link: https://youtu.be/CSdw3qP_kgs
Video Name: Supercell Composite Parameter
Lecturer: Rich Thompson
Description: Thompson discusses the Supercell Composite Parameter (SCP) in this instructional video for the NWS.
YouTube Link: https://youtu.be/QO0AB74Tig4
Video Name: Significant Tornado Parameter
Lecturer: Rich Thompson
Description: In this instructional video for the NWS, Thompson presents information on the use of the Significant Tornado Parameter (STP) for severe weather forecasting.
YouTube Link: https://youtu.be/oGroevljaWQ
Video Name: Tornado and Parameter Climatology
Lecturer: Rich Thompson
Description: Thompson discusses tornado climatology and parameter climatology associated with tornadic storms.
YouTube Link: https://youtu.be/-RPfmeZ8Gz4
Video Name: WSR-88D Tornado Damage-Rating Probabilities
Lecturer: Rich Thompson
Description: Thompson discusses how radar information can be used to estimate the potential magnitude of tornado damage at the ground.
YouTube Link: https://youtu.be/YkKzhz95Z-4
Video Name: Tornado Damage Rating Estimates: Combining WSR-88D and Near-Storm Environment
Lecturer: Rich Thompson
Description: Thompson discusses how the near-storm environment can be incorporated to give a better estimation of tornado damage at the ground.
YouTube Link: https://youtu.be/vkdxTrlxhGk
Video Name: Importance of WSR-88D Data Quality
Lecturer: Rich Thompson
Description: Thompson explains the importance of correctly interpreting radar data and how to determine whether radar signatures are caused by meteorological targets.
YouTube Link: https://youtu.be/lPFX3lmOAVs
Video Name: Convective Mode
Lecturer: Andrew Moore
Description: Moore discusses the important factors in forecasting convective mode and the effects of storm interactions.
YouTube Link: https://youtu.be/f99Fa-EXGEs
Vertical Circulations (Top)
Video Name: Sea Breeze/Land Breeze and Differential Heating Introduction
Lecturer: Ariel Cohen
Description: Cohen introduces the basic concepts of the sea breeze/land breeze, as well as how differential heating associated with mountains can influence anabatic and katabatic flow.
YouTube Link: https://youtu.be/3gzLZk6cn7s
Video Name: Mathematical Introduction to Circulation
Lecturer: Ariel Cohen
Description: Cohen introduces the theoretical work associated with the expression of vertical circulations in the atmosphere.
YouTube Link: https://youtu.be/SeFh0_PNHIU
Video Name: Stokes’ Theorem and Circulation
Lecturer: Ariel Cohen
Description: Cohen discusses circulation through the use of Stokes’ theorem and investigates the case of a barotropic fluid.
YouTube Link: https://youtu.be/c2HrpHsZsKU
Video Name: Circulation in a Barotropic Fluid
Lecturer: Ariel Cohen
Description: Cohen discusses the case of a barotropic fluid using Stokes’ Theorem.
YouTube Link: https://youtu.be/sQR1vAIjHNU
Video Name: Circulation of a Baroclinic Fluid
Lecturer: Ariel Cohen
Description: Cohen uses Stokes’ Theorem to demonstrate the circulation that is created within a baroclinic fluid.
YouTube Link: https://youtu.be/eLEYKigBHuA
Video Name: Diurnal Effects on the Dryline Circulation
Lecturer: Ariel Cohen
Description: In this video, Cohen discusses the changes in the dryline circulation that occur during daytime heating and overnight.
YouTube Link: https://youtu.be/7nwt2co6YuM
Video Name: Mesoscale Lift and the Dryline
Lecturer: Rich Thompson
Description: Thompson discusses the important factors that contribute to deep, moist convection initiating due to the dryline circulation.
YouTube Link: https://youtu.be/5aqS8X10gWw
Convection-Allowing Models (CAMs) and Ensembles (Top)
Video Name: Introduction and Biases of CAMs and Convection-Allowing Ensembles
Lecturer: Israel Jirak
Description: Jirak introduces convection-allowing models and provides examples of biases of specific operational models.
YouTube Link: https://youtu.be/ym3LEHS_c_M
Video Name: Uses and Limitations of CAMs
Lecturer: Israel Jirak
Description: Jirak specifically discusses the common limitations and uses of convection-allowing models.
YouTube Link: https://youtu.be/4ETfmMiLuwc
Video Name: History, Sample Cases, and Updraft Helicity in CAMs
Lecturer: Israel Jirak
Description: Jirak presents a brief history of convection-allowing models, reviews the performance of CAMs in a few example cases, and discusses the utility of updraft helicity to forecasters.
YouTube Link: https://youtu.be/xLXq6ztEL7Y
Video Name: Convection-Allowing Ensembles
Lecturer: Israel Jirak
Description: In this video, Jirak discusses the various aspects of convection-allowing ensemble models.
YouTube Link: https://youtu.be/1zJbjN_R0rw
Statistical Severe Convective Risk Assessment Model (SSCRAM) (Top)
Video Name: SSCRAM: Introduction and Ingredients
Lecturer: Ariel Cohen
Description: In this video, Cohen introduces SSCRAM and reviews the viability of different environmental parameters that can be used to forecast different severe weather threats.
YouTube Link: https://youtu.be/drQHiHMoFYQ
Video Name: SSCRAM: Month-to-Month Variability and Significant Tornado Predictability
Lecturer: Ariel Cohen
Description: Cohen discusses differences in predictability using SSCRAM output during different times of the year and presents conclusions drawn from research thus far, in regards to significant tornadoes.
YouTube Link: https://youtu.be/O39KFuGGUu4
Video Name: SSCRAM Overview
Lecturer: John Hart
Description: Hart provides an overview of SSCRAM, including how it was made, how SSCRAM probabilities are determined, the reliability of SSCRAM, and examples of forecast output from an actual severe weather event.
YouTube Link: https://youtu.be/K501ezwCFrs
Southeast U.S. Cool Season Severe Weather/Tornadoes and Other Low-buoyancy Environments (Top)
Video Name: Southeast United States Cool Season Tornado Environments
Lecturer: Jared Guyer
Description: Guyer discusses various aspects of southeast United States cool season tornado environments that makes them unique compared to other regions, particularly the Great Plains.
YouTube Link: https://youtu.be/BTRd54_Pa6A
Video Name: Tornadoes with Weak CAPE
Lecturer: Jared Guyer
Description: Guyer discusses various aspects of tornadoes that occur in weak CAPE environments and how convection-allowing models can aid in forecasting these types of events.
YouTube Link: https://youtu.be/7Y2_QOqqc9c
Video Name: Southeast U.S. Cold Season Severe Storm Environments: PBL Parameterization Schemes
Lecturer: Ariel Cohen
Description: Cohen discusses local, non-local, and hybrid PBL parameterization schemes and their implications on southeast U.S. cold season severe storm environments.
YouTube Link: https://youtu.be/cc_0OCQp-fw
Seasonal Severe Thunderstorm and Tornado Forecasting (Top)
Video Name: Seasonal Severe Thunderstorm and Tornado Forecasting
Lecturer: Ashton Robinson Cook
Description: Cook discusses how the phases of the El Niño Southern Oscillation can be used to create a seasonal forecast for severe thunderstorms and tornadoes.
YouTube Link: https://youtu.be/df44LiGTteU
Forecasting Fire Weather (Top)
Video Name: Forecasting Fire Weather in the United States
Lecturer: Ariel Cohen
Description: Cohen discusses an ingredients-based approach to fire weather forecasting.
YouTube Link: https://youtu.be/Xy9AdUaUynU
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